Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region for crypto exchange Gemini, believes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “very likely” to continue in some form, driven fundamentally by “human emotion.” Speaking to Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore, Ahmed explained that this cycle stems from periods of investor excitement and overextension, followed by market corrections.
Ahmed suggested that increasing institutional participation in the crypto industry could help absorb some market volatility. While this might temper the degree of price swings, he emphasized that the underlying cycle would persist due to its emotional drivers.
Ongoing Cycle Debate
The relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been a subject of ongoing debate within the crypto industry. Crypto analytics firm Glassnode indicated on August 21 that Bitcoin’s recent price movements might still align with its historic four-year halving cycle patterns.
Adding to the discussion, crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested that if past patterns hold, particularly mirroring the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin’s cycle peak could occur in October. This would place the peak approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving, implying a limited window for further price expansion.
Conversely, Matt Hougan of Bitwise expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s price strictly adhering to past cycles. On July 26, Hougan stated his expectation for 2026 to be an “up year,” broadly anticipating a positive few years for the asset.
Recent Market Performance
This discussion comes as Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged 11.5% over the past week, climbing to $123,850, just shy of its reported all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap. Historically, the fourth quarter, beginning October 1, has been Bitcoin’s strongest since 2013, boasting an average return of 79.39% according to CoinGlass.
Market Outlook
While opinions diverge on the exact trajectory of Bitcoin’s price cycles, the consensus points to human emotion as a persistent driver. The interplay between this inherent market psychology and the increasing influence of institutional capital will likely shape how future Bitcoin cycles unfold, even if their volatility is somewhat moderated.
