Finance

Will Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Endure? Gemini Exec Says Human Emotion Fuels Crypto’s Next Act

Gemini’s APAC head says Bitcoin‘s cycle will likely continue, driven by emotion, despite institutional influence.

October 4, 2025, 9:14 AM

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The glowing circuit board and Bitcoin coins represent the ever-evolving landscape of digital currency and technological innovation. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Saad Ahmed of Gemini believes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, fundamentally driven by “human emotion,” is “very likely” to continue, even as institutional participation might temper volatility.

The relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is a subject of ongoing debate, with some analysts suggesting its continuation and a potential October peak, while others express skepticism about strict adherence to past patterns.

Bitcoin recently surged 11.5% to $123,850, near its all-time high, and historically, the fourth quarter has been its strongest performing period since 2013.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s market movements have historically followed a four-year cycle, driven by investor emotion and linked to halving events, a pattern that is currently under debate as increasing institutional participation is expected to temper volatility but not eliminate the underlying emotional drivers.

Why This Matters

The ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle highlights that while human emotion is expected to remain a fundamental driver of its price movements, increasing institutional participation could temper the degree of market volatility. This suggests that future cycles may be less extreme, but the underlying pattern of investor excitement and correction will persist, leading to continued uncertainty and varied predictions among analysts regarding the precise timing and magnitude of future peaks.

Who Thinks What?

Saad Ahmed, head of APAC for Gemini, believes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “very likely” to continue due to “human emotion,” though increasing institutional participation might temper volatility.

Crypto analytics firm Glassnode and analyst Rekt Capital suggest Bitcoin’s recent movements may still align with historic four-year halving cycle patterns, with a potential cycle peak in October if past trends hold.

Conversely, Matt Hougan of Bitwise expresses skepticism that Bitcoin’s price will strictly adhere to past cycles, anticipating 2026 to be an “up year” and generally positive years ahead for the asset.

Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region for crypto exchange Gemini, believes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “very likely” to continue in some form, driven fundamentally by “human emotion.” Speaking to Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore, Ahmed explained that this cycle stems from periods of investor excitement and overextension, followed by market corrections.

Ahmed suggested that increasing institutional participation in the crypto industry could help absorb some market volatility. While this might temper the degree of price swings, he emphasized that the underlying cycle would persist due to its emotional drivers.

Ongoing Cycle Debate

The relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been a subject of ongoing debate within the crypto industry. Crypto analytics firm Glassnode indicated on August 21 that Bitcoin’s recent price movements might still align with its historic four-year halving cycle patterns.

Adding to the discussion, crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested that if past patterns hold, particularly mirroring the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin’s cycle peak could occur in October. This would place the peak approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving, implying a limited window for further price expansion.

Conversely, Matt Hougan of Bitwise expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s price strictly adhering to past cycles. On July 26, Hougan stated his expectation for 2026 to be an “up year,” broadly anticipating a positive few years for the asset.

Recent Market Performance

This discussion comes as Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged 11.5% over the past week, climbing to $123,850, just shy of its reported all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap. Historically, the fourth quarter, beginning October 1, has been Bitcoin’s strongest since 2013, boasting an average return of 79.39% according to CoinGlass.

Market Outlook

While opinions diverge on the exact trajectory of Bitcoin’s price cycles, the consensus points to human emotion as a persistent driver. The interplay between this inherent market psychology and the increasing influence of institutional capital will likely shape how future Bitcoin cycles unfold, even if their volatility is somewhat moderated.