Finance

Will Solana’s Price Plunge 50%? ETF Approval Could Rewrite the Script

Analyst predicts Solana could crash 50% to $104, though ETF approvals might counter the bearish trend.

October 17, 2025, 9:48 AM

An illustration depicts a downward-trending line graph representing a bearish forex market, accompanied by text emphasizing tips and strategies for success with generative AI.

Navigating the volatile forex market with bearish strategies, traders leverage AI to analyze trends and make informed decisions. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Crypto analyst Klejdi Cuni predicts a potential 50% crash for Solana (SOL) to $104, citing the October 10 market downturn as confirmation of a larger bearish trend.

The market downturn was reportedly triggered by comments from Donald Trump regarding 100% tariffs on China, impacting broader crypto sentiment.

The potential approval of 11 Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications could introduce significant institutional liquidity, potentially mitigating bearish forecasts for SOL.

The Story So Far

Solana’s price is currently under significant bearish pressure due to broader crypto market instability, particularly Bitcoin’s recent decline, and a market downturn reportedly triggered by Donald Trump’s comments on tariffs. However, this downward trend could be offset by the potential approval of 11 Solana Exchange-Traded Funds by the U.S. SEC, which historically have introduced substantial institutional investment and led to price surges for other cryptocurrencies.

Why This Matters

Solana faces a significant downside risk, with analysts predicting a potential 50% crash to $104 due to bearish technical indicators and Bitcoin’s instability, a sentiment that was reportedly influenced by comments from Donald Trump regarding tariffs. However, the potential approval of 11 pending Solana Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) could introduce a substantial influx of institutional capital, providing a critical counter-narrative that might mitigate these bearish forecasts and significantly alter the altcoin’s future price trajectory.

Who Thinks What?

Crypto analyst Klejdi Cuni believes Solana (SOL) faces a potential 50% crash to $104, arguing that the October 10 market downturn confirmed a larger negative trend, further compounded by Bitcoin’s struggles and broader crypto sentiment impacted by Donald Trump’s comments on tariffs.

Conversely, the potential approval of Solana Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could introduce significant institutional liquidity, potentially mitigating bearish forecasts and leading to substantial price surges, similar to historical trends seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The Solana (SOL) price faces a potential 50% crash to $104, according to a recent analysis by crypto analyst Klejdi Cuni on TradingView. This bearish outlook follows the October 10 market downturn, which Cuni suggests confirmed a larger negative trend for the altcoin, further compounded by ongoing struggles in Bitcoin’s price. However, the prospect of pending Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approvals could introduce significant institutional liquidity, potentially altering this bearish narrative.

Bearish Confirmation and Price Targets

The October 10 crash, which saw Solana briefly dip to $150 before recovering above $200, is viewed by Cuni not as an isolated event but as a confirmation of an existing bearish pattern. This market movement was reportedly triggered by comments from Donald Trump regarding 100% tariffs on China, impacting broader crypto sentiment. The analyst contends that the full extent of this bearish trend has yet to materialize.

Solana’s vulnerability is heightened by Bitcoin’s recent performance, which has seen a slow decline after an initial recovery, affecting altcoins. Cuni predicts that Solana could initially fall to at least $170. Should the broader bearish scenario unfold as anticipated, the altcoin could experience a 50% decline, reaching approximately $104.

The ETF Counter-Narrative

Despite the looming bearish pressure, the potential approval of Solana ETFs presents a significant counter-narrative. Data from The Block indicates that 11 Solana ETF applications are currently awaiting a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Should these ETFs receive approval, it could unlock a substantial influx of institutional capital into Solana. Historically, the introduction of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has led to considerable price surges, a trend that could potentially mitigate bearish forecasts for SOL. At the time of the original report, Solana was trading above $200, while Bitcoin hovered around $111,000, suggesting continued volatility.

Outlook

While Solana navigates a challenging market environment marked by bearish technical indicators and Bitcoin’s instability, the future decision on Solana ETFs remains a critical factor. Their approval could introduce a wave of institutional investment, potentially overriding current price depreciation risks and setting a new trajectory for the altcoin.