Finance

Will the US Establish a Bitcoin Reserve This Year? Why the Market is Missing the Mark

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn predicts a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve this year. Others are skeptical of the timing.

September 13, 2025, 8:55 AM

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Executive Summary

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn predicts a “strong chance” the U.S. government will establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) by year-end, a possibility he believes the market is “underpricing.”

President Trump signed an executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and U.S. lawmakers recently introduced a bill directing the Treasury to examine its feasibility.

Not all experts share optimism for a near-term SBR announcement, while several other nations, including Kyrgyzstan and Indonesia, are also exploring state cryptocurrency reserves.

The Story So Far

The concept of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gained formal traction when President Trump signed an executive order in March establishing it, an initiative now seeing legislative follow-up with lawmakers introducing a bill to study its feasibility, all while a broader global trend sees nations like Kyrgyzstan and Indonesia exploring their own state-backed cryptocurrency reserves to avoid being outpaced.

Why This Matters

The potential establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which some believe the market is currently underpricing, represents a significant governmental embrace of Bitcoin as a strategic national asset, building on President Trump’s earlier executive order. Such a move could fundamentally legitimize Bitcoin in traditional finance, driving further institutional adoption and potentially impacting its market value, while also underscoring a growing global trend where nations are exploring cryptocurrencies as state reserves, introducing a new geopolitical dimension to digital asset competition.

Who Thinks What?

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, believes there is a “strong chance” the U.S. government will establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of this year, an event he suggests the market is “underpricing.”

Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, is less optimistic about a near-term announcement, suggesting such a development is more likely in 2026 after the administration has accumulated its initial target of Bitcoin.

Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, expresses concern that delays in accumulating Bitcoin could cause the U.S. to fall behind other nations, urging the country to start acquiring Bitcoin this year.

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, believes there is a “strong chance” the United States government will establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) by the end of this year, an event he suggests the market is “underpricing.” This prediction, shared in an X post on Thursday, comes amidst legislative developments and growing international interest in state-backed cryptocurrency reserves, though other industry executives remain less confident about the timeline.

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Prospects

Thorn emphasized that he still sees a high likelihood of the U.S. government formally announcing the SBR this year, holding Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic asset. He noted that the market appears to be “completely underpricing” the chances of such an announcement.

While President Trump signed an executive order in March officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, a formalized strategic plan has yet to be confirmed. However, recent actions suggest the initiative is progressing.

On Tuesday, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill directing the U.S. Treasury to examine and produce a report on the feasibility and technical considerations of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This follows a July 31 report by Cointelegraph, which confirmed that President Trump’s crypto liaison remains keen on a strategic Bitcoin reserve, despite its brief mention in a recent crypto policy report.

Skepticism and International Context

Not all crypto market participants share Thorn’s optimism for a near-term announcement. Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, suggested that such a development is more likely to occur in 2026.

Weisburger argued that the administration is “too smart to announce ANYTHING until AFTER they accumulate to their initial target.” This perspective implies that any public announcement would only come after a period of discreet accumulation.

Meanwhile, some prominent Bitcoin advocates express concern that delays in accumulating Bitcoin could cause the U.S. to fall behind other nations. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, stated in June that the U.S. “has to start” acquiring Bitcoin this year to avoid being “front-run” by countries like Pakistan.

Globally, several nations are exploring similar initiatives. On Wednesday, Kyrgyzstan, an emerging player in Central Asia’s crypto market, advanced a bill to establish a state cryptocurrency reserve. Additionally, on August 6, Indonesian Bitcoin advocate group Bitcoin Indonesia reported meeting with Indonesian officials to discuss how such a strategy could drive economic growth in their country.

The debate surrounding a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve highlights differing opinions on its timing and necessity, while international developments underscore a broader trend of nations considering cryptocurrency as a strategic asset.