In 2010, the political landscape of Iowa was markedly different as Kim Reynolds was elected to statewide office as the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor alongside former Governor Terry Branstad. At that time, Barack Obama was serving as President of the United States, having been elected with significant support from Iowa voters.
Politically, Iowa’s federal delegation was evenly divided, and Democrats held a majority in both the Iowa House and Senate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump was known for hosting “The Apprentice.”
Recently, Reynolds made a surprise announcement that she would not seek a third term as governor, a decision that has sent a wave of excitement through Des Moines. This has opened up the primary race, marking it as the first for Iowa Republicans since 2010. The unexpected move has also given Democrats a renewed sense of hope that they might regain some political ground after years of Republican dominance. However, achieving such a shift would likely require a strong backlash against the Trump administration, which tends to occur more during midterm elections. A compelling candidate and substantial campaign funds would also be critical. State Auditor Rob Sand, currently the only Democrat elected statewide, has not yet declared his candidacy for governor but has already amassed $8 million in campaign contributions, much of which comes from personal and family sources.
In the wake of Reynolds’ announcement, several Iowa Republicans have begun considering their political futures. Among those are Attorney General Brenna Bird, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, House Speaker Pat Grassley, who is the grandson of Iowa’s senior U.S. senator, and Representative Bobby Kaufmann, son of the state GOP chairman.
Reynolds became Iowa’s first female governor after Trump transitioned from reality television to politics, winning the presidency in 2016 and appointing Branstad as the U.S. ambassador to China the following year. She was elected to a full term in 2018 and reelected in 2022, during which time Iowa experienced a significant shift to the right politically, with Republicans holding nearly every statewide and federal office and commanding large majorities in both state legislative chambers.
Reynolds’ decision not to run in 2026 makes her the first eligible incumbent governor in the U.S. to opt out, setting the stage for a political shake-up in Iowa during a midterm election year. The lack of term limits for the governor’s office in Iowa means that opportunities like this are rare, with only five governors serving in the past five decades. This has prompted some to view it as a rare opportunity for those with ambitions for the governor’s office.
In her announcement on April 11, Reynolds emphasized the foundation of “strong conservative leadership” she believes will continue to propel the state forward. She acknowledged that it has been 16 years since there was an open governor’s seat, seeing it as a healthy opportunity for candidates to present their visions for the state’s future.
This upcoming governor’s race will be the first since Trump strengthened his influence within the Republican Party, a fact underscored by his decisive win in Iowa’s 2024 presidential GOP caucuses as he began his return to the White House.
The prospect of a primary, with or without a Trump endorsement, could significantly shape the political landscape, especially if current federal or state lawmakers decide to run for governor, potentially leaving more open seats in the general election. The Democratic campaign arm has already announced its intention to target three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, with two identified as highly competitive.
The Democratic Governors Association has expressed optimism about their chances in 2026, noting that open Republican primaries often produce candidates who struggle in general elections. They are closely monitoring the developing political scene in Iowa.