The Democratic state government trifecta in New Jersey, in which Democrats hold the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers, faces potential vulnerability in the 2025 elections. At the same time, the establishment of a new Democratic trifecta in Virginia is considered a moderate possibility. These evaluations are based on Ballotpedia’s 2025 trifecta vulnerability ratings, which assess the likelihood of such trifectas breaking or forming.
In New Jersey, while no elections will be held for the state Senate, all 80 seats in the state House and the governorship are up for grabs. To break the Democratic trifecta, Republicans would need to gain 13 seats in the House or win the governorship. Conversely, Democrats will maintain their trifecta if they lose fewer than 13 House seats and retain the governorship. Since 2004, Democrats have consistently held partisan control over both chambers in New Jersey, with the current governor’s race rated as Lean Democratic.
In Virginia, the current Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, faces a competitive race rated as Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections and a Toss-up by The Cook Political Report. All 100 House districts in Virginia will also hold elections. Democrats currently enjoy a two-seat majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate. To secure a trifecta, Virginia Democrats need to maintain their House majority and win the governor’s office.
The best-case scenario for Democrats involves retaining their trifecta in New Jersey while achieving one in Virginia, potentially increasing the number of Democratic trifectas across the nation to 16. To retain control in New Jersey, Democrats must hold onto their House majority and the governorship. In Virginia, gaining the governor’s office and maintaining the House majority would establish a new trifecta.
Republicans aim to disrupt the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and prevent one in Virginia. With both states’ upper legislative chambers under Democratic control and not subject to elections, Republicans cannot achieve trifectas. However, in Virginia, they need to maintain the governorship or gain at least one House seat to stop a Democratic trifecta. In New Jersey, winning the governorship or gaining 12 House seats would break the Democratic hold.
Historically, state government trifectas have undergone significant changes. For instance, the 2024 elections saw Democratic trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota shift to divided governments. Between 2010 and 2024, there were 82 instances of trifectas being broken or formed. Virginia and New Jersey have also experienced changes in their trifecta statuses multiple times over the years. These changes are often reflected in the following year’s trifecta numbers, once newly elected officials assume office.
The Broader Implications
The potential shifts in trifecta control in New Jersey and Virginia hold significant implications for both states’ political landscapes and policy directions. For residents, changes in trifecta status could impact legislative priorities, including taxation, healthcare, and education policy. A Democratic trifecta might prioritize social programs and environmental regulations, while a break in Democratic control could lead to more conservative fiscal policies.
For businesses and communities, these political shifts could influence economic policy and regulatory environments, affecting local industries and economic growth. Additionally, the outcome of these elections could have a ripple effect on national politics, setting the tone for future elections and party strategies. The stakes are high as both parties strategize to either consolidate or disrupt trifecta control in these pivotal states.