As an active weather pattern returns across the Plains, Midwest, and South, severe storms are expected to bring large hail, wind damage, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding over the holiday weekend.
Severe Weather: Areas and Timing
Through Thursday night, regions including eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and Iowa are at risk of experiencing large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes. Notably, the areas surrounding Omaha, Nebraska, and Des Moines, Iowa, may face a heightened threat of very large hail.
On Friday, the threat of scattered severe storms extends from the Great Lakes down to Oklahoma and northern Texas, with wind damage and large hail as the primary concerns.
During the Easter holiday weekend, severe weather could impact regions from the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains on Saturday, and from eastern Texas to the lower and mid-Mississippi valleys on Easter Sunday. Damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible each day.
Flash Flood Threat
While locally heavy rain is anticipated in the already flooded lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys, heavier rainfall totals are more likely from northern Texas to Missouri. Localized flash flooding may occur, especially from Friday night through Saturday night in areas including Dallas-Fort Worth, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and St. Louis. Some regions could experience repeated bands of rainfall, leading to heavier totals.
Weather Pattern Dynamics
The severe weather resurgence is primarily driven by a jet stream plunging southward into the West before shifting into the Plains states. This pattern draws warm and humid air north from the Gulf, a configuration commonly associated with more severe weather in the southern and central U.S. during spring. Recent weeks have seen a contrasting pattern, which has kept severe weather relatively subdued since early April’s outbreak.
Preparedness Measures
- Residents in affected areas should prepare a plan prior to severe weather events.
- Utilize multiple means of receiving weather alerts from the National Weather Service, including smartphones, NOAA weather radios, and local media. Ensure smartphones are fully charged and NOAA weather radio batteries are fresh to receive alerts, even at night.
- Identify the safest location to quickly reach in the event of a warning. For those in manufactured homes, a community storm shelter may be the safest option.
- Immediately heed any warnings, including those for severe thunderstorms, as they can also cause significant damage.
- Avoid driving into floodwaters, as flood-related incidents have resulted in 33 fatalities in 2025, with 21 occurring in vehicles.
The Bottom Line
The severe weather forecast for the Midwest and surrounding regions poses a significant threat to communities and infrastructure. Individuals should remain vigilant and prioritize safety by preparing in advance and staying informed through reliable weather alerts. The potential for severe storms and flash flooding underscores the importance of understanding weather patterns and taking appropriate precautions to minimize risks. By staying prepared and informed, individuals can better protect themselves and their property during these challenging weather conditions.