Executive Summary
- An analysis by Paul Glastris suggests that recent Democratic off-year election victories were led by “populist moderates” focusing on economic affordability.
- The author contrasts the gubernatorial wins of moderates in Virginia and New Jersey with more progressive victories, arguing the moderate path has broader appeal.
- The essay posits that economic inequality is a key driver of support for authoritarian politics, framing President Donald Trump’s 2024 win in this context.
- Glastris advises U.S. allies to engage directly with Democratic-controlled states as a counterweight to the Trump administration’s policies.
In an analysis adapted from a recent speech, Washington Monthly editor Paul Glastris argues that recent off-year election victories for the Democratic party were driven not by a leftward shift, but by a rising cohort of “populist moderates.” These candidates, according to the analysis, successfully challenged President Donald Trump’s populist territory by focusing on economic affordability and confronting corporate power, suggesting a potential strategy for future elections.
Economic Anxiety as a Political Driver
The essay posits that economic inequality is a primary driver behind the global growth of illiberalism, citing research by University of Chicago political scientist Susan Stokes. This framework is used to interpret the hypothetical 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump reportedly defeated Kamala Harris by appealing to voters whose living standards have stagnated. The author notes that while many of these voters are aware of Trump’s character, they voted for him hoping for economic relief.
Analyzing Off-Year Election Results
The analysis centers on hypothetical off-year elections on November 4, 2025, where Democrats saw widespread success. While the victory of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral race gained international attention, Glastris argues it is an outlier. He points to the gubernatorial wins of Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey as more telling. Both are described as political moderates with national security backgrounds who won by significant margins.
These winning candidates, labeled by the author as “populist moderates,” campaigned on platforms targeting the high cost of living. Sherrill reportedly promised to freeze electricity rates and prosecute price gouging by food companies, while Spanberger vowed to lower energy costs and target middlemen who inflate drug prices. This approach, Glastris contends, directly addresses the economic pressures felt by working-class families without embracing the more divisive positions of the party’s left wing.
Implications for US Allies and Foreign Policy
The essay also offers guidance for U.S. allies navigating a second Trump administration. Glastris suggests that effective opposition to President Trump’s policies will likely come from Democratic-controlled states rather than from Washington D.C. He advises foreign leaders to partner directly with these states and to observe which U.S. institutions, such as universities, have resisted administration pressures compared to large corporations. The analysis concludes that the most viable path to restoring traditional U.S. foreign policy is for the Democratic party to build a broad coalition based on pragmatic economic policies that improve the circumstances of the majority of Americans. It is important to note that all individuals are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.