Executive Summary
- New Orleans reported a dramatic decrease in carjackings, falling from 53 in January 2022 to just 4 in January 2025.
- Data from 34 major U.S. police agencies confirms a nationwide downward trend in vehicular hijackings throughout 2025.
- The decline is attributed to a reduction in criminal offenses among youth demographics rather than increased police clearance rates.
- Arrest records from Houston and Philadelphia show a significant drop in offending among individuals under the age of 25.
Carjacking incidents in major American cities have dropped significantly in 2025 and early 2026, marking a sharp reversal from the surge in vehicular hijackings observed between 2020 and 2022, according to a new analysis of law enforcement data. Reports indicate that cities such as New Orleans, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and New York City are experiencing a return to lower pre-pandemic figures following years of heightened activity.
Jeff Asher, a criminal justice analyst publishing via Jeff-alytics, reported that the decline is particularly pronounced in New Orleans. According to the data, the city recorded 53 carjackings in January 2022, compared to just four incidents in January 2025. The total number of carjackings in New Orleans for the entire year of 2025 was 57, a figure nearly equivalent to a single month’s total during the peak of the surge three years prior.
This downward trend is not isolated to Louisiana. Aggregated data from 34 large police agencies nationwide confirms a widespread reduction in carjacking reports throughout 2025. Statistics from the Chicago Police Department, the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington, D.C., and the New York Police Department corroborate the pattern, showing substantial decreases when compared to the spikes recorded in 2022. While carjacking data prior to 2020 is limited due to reporting standards within the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), the current trajectory indicates a stabilization.
The analysis suggests that the reduction is driven primarily by a decrease in the volume of offenses rather than a dramatic shift in police clearance rates. Although there is evidence of improved clearance rates in some jurisdictions, Asher notes that these improvements are insufficient to fully explain the magnitude of the drop. Instead, demographic data on arrestees points to a significant behavioral shift.
Arrest data from cities providing detailed Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) statistics, such as Houston and Philadelphia, indicates a massive drop in offending among individuals under the age of 25. In contrast, offending rates for individuals aged 25 and older have remained relatively stable. Analysts posit that the normalization of social structures following the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic may be influencing younger demographics, who were statistically the primary offenders during the surge.
Criminological Perspective
The stabilization of carjacking rates suggests a potential return to pre-pandemic public safety baselines after a period of extreme volatility. The data implies that the reduction is organic to the offender population rather than solely the result of law enforcement intervention or aggressive sentencing. As municipalities analyze these trends, the focus shifts to maintaining these lows through community stability and youth engagement. It is important to note that while arrest statistics are used to analyze demographic trends, these figures represent accusations, and all individuals are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
