Executive Summary
- Haiti has suspended its November 15 presidential election due to escalating gang violence and a lack of state control.
- Ecuador will hold a constitutional referendum on November 16, with a key proposal to allow foreign military bases to combat crime.
- Chileans will vote in the first round of a presidential election on November 16 to choose a successor for President Gabriel Boric.
- The divergent situations highlight contrasting levels of political stability and institutional capacity across Latin America.
Chile and Ecuador are set to hold significant national votes this weekend, shaping their political futures, while Haiti has suspended its presidential election due to an escalating security and humanitarian crisis. The contrasting events on November 15-16 underscore the divergent paths of governance and stability in Latin America.
Haiti Postpones Election Amid Instability
Haitian authorities have postponed the presidential election scheduled for Saturday, November 15, citing a lack of security guarantees. The country has been mired in a severe governance crisis since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, with criminal gangs reportedly controlling up to 90% of the capital, Port-au-Prince. The Transitional Presidential Council, tasked with organizing the vote, ultimately conceded that holding a credible election was impossible amid widespread violence and the displacement of over one million people. A new date has not been announced.
Ecuador to Vote on Constitutional Reforms
On Sunday, November 16, Ecuadorans will vote in a referendum on several constitutional amendments proposed by President Daniel Noboa. The most contentious question seeks to eliminate a ban on foreign military bases, a measure the government argues is necessary to combat transnational crime and a surge in violence. Other proposals include reducing the number of legislators and altering the system for financing political parties. The referendum could significantly reshape the country’s 2008 Constitution.
Chileans to Choose New President
Also on Sunday, Chileans will head to the polls for the first round of a presidential election to determine the successor to President Gabriel Boric, who is ineligible for re-election. The race is seen as highly polarized, with leading candidates including Jeannette Jara of the ruling progressive coalition and Jose Antonio Kast of the hard-right Republican Party. Key issues shaping the election include public security, immigration, and economic stagnation. A runoff in December is widely expected.
Contrasting Democratic Exercises
The weekend’s events highlight a stark regional divergence. While Chile and Ecuador are utilizing democratic processes to address political and security challenges, Haiti’s inability to hold a basic election reveals the profound collapse of its state institutions. The outcomes in both Chile and Ecuador are expected to have significant implications for their domestic policies and regional alignments.