Executive Summary
- Leftist candidate Jeannette Jara and far-right politician José Antonio Kast will advance to a December presidential runoff after leading the first round of voting.
- The election was dominated by voter concerns over a surge in violent crime and a significant increase in migration into the country.
- Despite Jara’s first-round lead, polling and the combined vote share of right-wing candidates suggest a challenging path to victory for the left.
SANTIAGO, Chile – Leftist former Labour Minister Jeannette Jara and far-right politician José Antonio Kast are headed for a December presidential runoff after neither secured a majority in Chile’s first-round election on Sunday. The results set up a stark choice for voters in a nation grappling with rising crime and economic pressures.
With over half the ballots tallied, the national electoral authority, Servel, reported that Jara, a 51-year-old communist candidate, led with 26.58 percent of the vote. Kast followed with 24.32 percent. The next-closest contender, ultra-right legislator Johannes Kaiser, has conceded defeat.
The campaign was largely defined by public anxiety over a surge in violent crime, including kidnappings and extortion, in a country historically considered one of Latin America’s safest. This has been linked by some to a significant increase in migration, with the migrant population doubling since 2017 to comprise 8.8 percent of residents.
The two front-runners offer sharply contrasting solutions. Jara has proposed expanding the police force and lifting banking secrecy rules to target organized crime, while also addressing cost-of-living issues. Kast, who is often compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump, has advocated for a hardline approach, promising to build walls and trenches along the border with Bolivia to stop migrants.
Despite leading the first round, Jara faces a difficult path to victory in the December 14 runoff. The combined vote share for right-wing candidates significantly outweighs that of the left, and polls have consistently projected Kast would win a head-to-head contest. Jara’s first-round total was below pre-election forecasts, while Kast outperformed expectations.
This election is being closely watched internationally as a barometer for the political direction of South America, where left-wing governments have recently faced electoral setbacks in countries such as Argentina and Bolivia.