Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Washington, D.C., now has “no crime” or is a “crime-free zone,” assertions that are directly contradicted by official police statistics. These statements follow his administration’s August deployment of the National Guard and federal takeover of the city’s police force, a period during which D.C. has, in fact, experienced a notable reduction in crime rates.
Trump’s Claims Versus Reality
On Tuesday and Wednesday, President Trump publicly stated that crime in the capital had “completely vanished,” emphasizing that “there is none.” These claims came just a day after a man was fatally shot and two women were injured in separate incidents in the city, with dozens of other crimes also reported to police on Monday.
During a White House address on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Washington, DC is a totally safe city. You’re not reporting any crime because there is none.” He further contended, “They said crime is down 87%, and I said, ‘No it’s not. It’s down 100%.’”
Despite the President’s declarations, publicly available police statistics for the city of approximately 700,000 residents confirm that crime continues to occur. Even supporters of the federal intervention acknowledge that crime has not been eliminated.
Crime Data Analysis
While a decline in crime since the federal takeover is evident, it is far from “100%.” The union representing Washington police officers, for instance, reported that overall crime had dropped 21% in the 21 days following the takeover announcement. This indicates a clear improvement but falls significantly short of a complete eradication of crime.
Data from the two weeks ending Sunday, August 31, showed overall reported crime in Washington was approximately 28% lower than in the two weeks preceding the federal takeover (July 28 – August 10). Reported violent crime was down about 7% during the same period. However, this still translated to more than 790 reported overall offenses, including over 85 reported violent offenses.
In the last week ending August 31, overall reported crime was about 27% lower than the week before the takeover. Yet, there were still more than 375 reported overall offenses. Notably, reported violent crime in that specific week increased by about 23%, accounting for over 50 reported offenses.
Context on Specific Crime Categories
President Trump’s reference to an “87% down” figure may stem from a specific statistic regarding carjackings. Mayor Muriel Bowser previously noted that carjackings were 87% lower during the initial 20 days of the federal takeover compared to the same 20-day period in 2024.
However, an important context is that carjackings in Washington, D.C., had already significantly declined before the federal intervention. In July, the month prior to the takeover, there were 16 carjackings, a 64% decrease from July 2024 and the lowest monthly figure since May 2020. August saw an even lower figure of 10 carjackings, with six occurring before the takeover, marking the lowest count since March 2020.
Similarly, President Trump claimed a recent 12-day streak without a murder in Washington was the first in “years.” This streak was impressive, but the city had experienced a 16-day murder-free period earlier in the same year, making the “years” claim inaccurate.
In conclusion, while Washington, D.C., has experienced a measurable reduction in crime since the federal government’s intervention, official statistics do not support President Trump’s repeated claims that crime has been entirely eliminated or is “down 100%.” The data indicates ongoing criminal activity, albeit at reduced rates in several categories, with some positive trends already present before the federal takeover.
