In Washington, the elections in Florida and Wisconsin are serving as pivotal indicators of President Donald Trump’s influence just two months into his second term. A prominent contest is taking place for a swing seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which, although technically nonpartisan, has amassed over $90 million in spending.
Trump, along with billionaire advisor Elon Musk, is backing conservative judge Brad Schimel, while progressive billionaires and Democrats are supporting liberal candidate Susan Crawford.
In Florida, two congressional seats that lean Republican are under scrutiny, potentially offering the GOP a slight advantage in a closely divided chamber. Despite this, Democrats in both districts have significantly out-fundraised their Republican opponents, raising concerns particularly over the race to succeed Mike Waltz, who is now serving as Trump’s national security adviser.
Key Areas to Watch in Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, the size of Democratic victories in Milwaukee and Madison could be instrumental. Historically, Democrats secure large margins in Milwaukee County and Dane County, home to Madison, which are critical in statewide races, especially tight contests.
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In 2024, Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, secured 68% of the vote in Milwaukee and 75% in Dane but narrowly lost statewide. The same night, Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin ran slightly ahead of Harris in these counties and won reelection.
In 2023, the Democratic Party-supported Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz garnered 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% in Dane, ultimately winning statewide by a significant margin.
Conversely, Republicans traditionally perform well in the suburban Milwaukee counties of Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha, known collectively as the “WOW” counties. A strong Republican turnout here can offset Democratic gains in urban areas. Republican candidates have historically won all three counties in major elections since at least 2016.
In Green Bay, located in Brown County, Republicans typically maintain an edge but not by large margins. Trump won the county in all his presidential campaigns with approximately 52%-53% of the vote. Despite this, Democrats Tony Evers and Janet Protasiewicz have won Brown County in recent statewide races, indicating that a Democratic victory here could spell trouble for Republicans.
Sauk County, north of Madison, often supports Democratic candidates by narrow margins. While its contributions aren’t decisive in statewide outcomes, it has favored Democrats in eight out of the last ten major elections. However, Trump managed to carry Sauk in 2016 and 2024, both times securing Wisconsin and the presidency. A Republican win in Sauk could suggest a favorable statewide outcome for the party.
Florida’s Election Dynamics
In Florida, Democrats are optimistic about their strong fundraising efforts in races to replace Waltz and former Representative Matt Gaetz. Both special elections are set in predominantly Republican districts. In the Florida Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, Trump captured about 68% of the vote in 2024, slightly outperforming Gaetz’s 66% in his reelection. In the 6th Congressional District, Trump garnered roughly 65% of the vote, slightly less than Waltz’s 67% in his last House bid.
The four counties comprising the 1st District have consistently voted Republican in presidential elections for the past 60 years, with only one exception in Walton County since 1960. Similarly, all six counties in the 6th District have been won by Republican presidential candidates in recent elections, with a long-standing Republican preference in Lake County dating back to 1944.
For signs of potential Democratic upsets in these districts, attention should be paid to Escambia County in the 1st District, where Trump and Gaetz received the least support, albeit still a majority. In the 6th District, Volusia County, which has leaned Republican in recent elections, might also provide early indicators. Historically, Democrats won Volusia consecutively from 1992 to 2008, but recent trends have favored Republicans.
Your World Now
- The outcome of these elections could influence national political alignments, potentially affecting legislative priorities and federal policies that impact daily life.
- Changes in judicial leanings, particularly in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, may affect rulings on state laws that have direct implications for citizens’ rights and local governance.
- In Florida, potential shifts in congressional representation could alter the balance of power, affecting resource allocation and legislative focus for the state.
- The significant financial investment in these races highlights the growing importance of campaign funding, impacting how candidates are selected and how campaigns are run.
- Voter turnout and engagement levels in these elections could serve as a barometer for future national elections, influencing party strategies and voter outreach initiatives.
