The 2024 presidential election saw Vice President Kamala Harris struggle at the polls, with a marked decline in voter turnout compared to her predecessor, Joe Biden, in 2020. Donald Trump managed to increase his vote count by approximately 2.8 million, while Harris’s performance lagged significantly, underperforming Biden’s 2020 results by about 6.8 million votes. This analysis explores key factors behind Harris’s electoral performance, particularly in crucial battleground states.
In a year where the overall voter turnout was noticeably lower than in 2020, the 2024 election marked just the second time in the 21st century that a Republican candidate secured more votes than a Democrat. This trend was also observed in 2012, when there was a decline in votes compared to the previous election. Trump’s victory was defined by his ability to capture the vote of nearly a third of the eligible voting-age population, marginally surpassing Harris’s support. Meanwhile, a third of the population chose to abstain from voting altogether.
Harris’s performance fell short of 2020’s Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, in 45 states and Washington, DC. Despite ongoing vote counting in some regions, significant shifts in these numbers are unlikely. Harris’s most significant losses were in populous areas such as California, New York, and Florida. Although these declines did not directly impact the Electoral College outcome, they underscored a broader trend of declining support for Harris. In contrast, Trump capitalized on these regions, bolstering his vote totals by hundreds of thousands, particularly in strongholds like Texas, Florida, and New York.
The battleground states presented a nuanced picture, with both Harris and Trump securing additional votes compared to 2020 in places like Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada, where population growth has been notable. However, in Arizona, where population growth did not translate into a higher vote count, Harris’s support diminished even further, allowing Trump to claim a decisive victory. Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states with stagnant population growth, also saw fewer votes for Harris compared to Biden’s 2020 performance. The election hinged on about 230,000 votes across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with Trump narrowly tipping the scales in these key areas.
While Harris managed to improve vote counts in certain areas, including within the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, these gains were insufficient to counteract Trump’s widespread advancements. Notably, Utah was the only non-battleground state where Harris surpassed Biden’s 2020 vote count. Trump’s increases were not confined to regions of high turnout; he also saw growth in areas with overall lower voter participation.
The dynamics of the 2024 campaign highlight how voter engagement varies depending on how contested a state is perceived to be. In states with intense campaigning, voter turnout tended to increase, whereas it generally fell in states where the outcome appeared more predictable.
The 2024 election underscored significant shifts in voter behavior and party support dynamics. With Trump increasing his voter base and Harris facing challenges across several key states, the results reflect changing political landscapes in the United States. Understanding these patterns is crucial as preparations for future elections begin.
Source: CNN
