In an unexpected turn during Rivalry Week, Ohio State’s loss to Michigan brought a significant shake-up in the SP+ rankings, highlighting the intense competition at the top of college football.
The recent defeat has not only removed Ohio State from the Big Ten title contention but has also intensified the SP+ ratings. The top four college football teams are now separated by a mere two points, with the top ten teams all within five and a half points, marking one of the closest races in recent years. This is the kind of competitive landscape anticipated as we move closer to the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
Projections for the upcoming conference championship games are equally exciting, with eight out of nine title games predicted to be close encounters, within a narrow range of 5.4 points. Notably, all power-conference games are projected to be tightly contested: Georgia versus Texas with a prediction of Texas leading by 1.5 points, Oregon against Penn State with Oregon favored by 3.2 points, Iowa State versus Arizona State with Iowa State ahead by 3.7 points, although the SP+ has previously underestimated Arizona State, and SMU against Clemson with SMU leading by 5.4 points.
The SP+ rankings, developed by Bill Connelly, serve as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. While not a résumé ranking, SP+ is designed to be predictive, focusing on the most sustainable and consistent aspects of a team’s performance. It provides insights that go beyond victory margins or the difficulty of game schedules, offering a clearer view of a team’s underlying strength. As such, if a team wins but performs unremarkably, they might drop in the ratings; conversely, a strong yet unlucky team might see their ranking improve despite a loss.
As the college football season progresses, the evolving SP+ rankings underline the dynamics and unpredictability inherent in the sport. With conference championships on the horizon, fans can anticipate closely-fought games that may redefine the path to the playoffs. The SP+ ratings, by spotlighting consistent performance over notable victories, continue to offer a unique perspective that both fans and analysts can appreciate.
Source: ESPN
