The MLB Draft Lottery has become a notable feature of the offseason, particularly as it determines the upcoming Draft order. This year, the event is scheduled to take place in Dallas and will broadcast live on MLB Network at 5:30 p.m. ET. This lottery is an integral part of the Winter Meetings, organized to shape the top of the Draft order.
In its third year, the Draft Lottery introduces an opportunity for all non-playoff teams to vie for the top six picks. This year, 16 of 18 non-playoff teams are eligible. These teams are ranked according to their odds of securing the No. 1 pick based on their 2024 winning percentages.
The odds for these teams are as follows: the Rockies and Marlins each have a 22.45% chance, while the Angels stand at 17.96%. The Washington Nationals have a 10.20% chance, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays at 7.48%, and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 5.31%. The Cincinnati Reds have a 3.67% chance, the Texas Rangers 2.45%, and the San Francisco Giants 1.90%. The Tampa Bay Rays hold a 1.50% chance while the Boston Red Sox are at 1.22%. The Minnesota Twins sit at 1.09%, the Cardinals at 0.82%, the Cubs at 0.68%, the Mariners at 0.53%, and the D-Backs at 0.27%.
The White Sox and the A’s are notable exceptions this year. Despite having a low winning percentage last season, the White Sox are disqualified from the lottery due to their revenue-sharing status and previous lottery participation. The A’s, also a revenue-receiving team, have already won lottery picks the past two years and cannot receive one this year.
Notably, last year’s lottery saw the Cleveland Guardians win the top pick with only a 2.0% chance, selecting Travis Bazzana from Oregon State. Previously, the Pittsburgh Pirates obtained the top pick with a shared 16.5% chance, leading to the selection of Paul Skenes.
The draft order for postseason teams is dictated by their elimination stages and revenue-sharing classification. This means that the sequence begins with Wild Card Series losers and progresses to the World Series winner. Teams within these categories are arranged by revenue-sharing standing, with ‘payee’ clubs picking before ‘non-payee’ ones. If teams’ winning percentages are identical, ties are resolved by reviewing past performance, ensuring a fair selection process.
Thus, the draft order for the 12 postseason teams is as follows: Orioles (19th), Brewers (20th), Astros (21st), Braves (22nd), Royals (23rd), Tigers (24th), Padres (25th), Phillies (26th), Guardians (27th), Mets (28th), Yankees (29th), and Dodgers (30th).
Following the first round, the lottery does not influence picks 19 through 30, which prioritize based on reverse order of winning percentage.
This year’s MLB Draft Lottery serves as a critical aspect for teams seeking to bolster their rosters with top talent. The influence of winning percentages and revenue-sharing categories adds layers of complexity and strategy, making the event highly anticipated among teams and fans alike.
Source: Mlb
