With only three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, fans and analysts are turning their attention to the 2025 NFL Draft. The draft is set to kick off on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and the current projections reveal intriguing prospects for the first-round order.
Utilizing ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), we can gauge the probabilities of each team’s draft position by simulating the rest of the season 20,000 times. These simulations provide insights into game outcomes based on team ratings and game locations, ultimately predicting the draft order through projected final records.
Currently, the New York Giants hold the top spot for the No. 1 pick, with a 37.4% chance. Their average draft position sits at 2.8, reflecting their challenging season record of 2-12. Close behind are the New England Patriots, also with a tough season at 3-11, showing a 23.6% probability for the premier pick and an average draft standing of 3.1.
Other teams in the hunt for early draft selections include the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Jacksonville Jaguars, all sharing similar records and draft odds. Notably, the Panthers and Raiders are tied with a 3-11 record, with the Panthers having a 13.1% chance for the first pick, while the Raiders have a slightly higher probability of 13.8%.
As we move further down the draft order, teams like the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns find themselves with lower probabilities (<6.1%) for the No. 1 pick due to their season records of 3-11. However, their chances for top-five and top-10 selections remain substantial.
Meanwhile, teams such as the New York Jets and Chicago Bears, despite slightly better records, have much slimmer chances for the earliest draft positions. The Bears, for instance, have a 3.4% chance for a top-five pick with their 4-10 record.
In contrast, teams performing better in the current season, such as the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins, still find themselves outside the immediate contention for top-10 picks, owing to their average draft positions ranked above the ten mark.
For teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, who boast a dominant 13-1 record, the focus is less on early draft positions and more on maintaining their winning momentum into the playoffs.
These projections, while data-driven, provide a glimpse into the strategic moves teams might consider leading up to the draft, emphasizing the importance of each remaining game in shaping next year’s team compositions.
As the 2024 NFL regular season approaches its end, the anticipation for the 2025 draft order intensifies. Current projections indicate a likely top pick for the New York Giants, but with several games still to play, the landscape could shift, making each matchup critical in determining final draft positions.
Source: Espn
