The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs and its contentious rhetoric are projected to significantly reduce international travel to the United States this year. A leading travel forecasting company, Tourism Economics, has adjusted its expectations, now predicting a 9.4% decrease in the number of inbound international travelers. This revised figure nearly doubles the 5% decline initially anticipated at the end of February.
Earlier this year, there was optimism for a robust rise in international travel to the U.S., with predictions of a 9% increase compared to 2024. However, recent high-profile detentions of European tourists at U.S. borders have discouraged potential visitors. Additional factors contributing to this downturn include discontent over tariffs, tensions with Canada and Greenland, and a heated exchange between President Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. These developments have been described as a series of unforced errors by the administration, directly affecting international travel to the U.S.
The anticipated decrease in visitors will have a substantial impact on various sectors including airlines, hotels, and national parks. Particularly hard-hit will be states like New York and Michigan, as well as popular tourist destinations such as California, Nevada, and Florida. A significant decline in travel from Canada is expected, potentially reducing visits by 20%. According to the U.S. Travel Association, even a 10% dip in Canadian travel could result in 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion less in spending, and the loss of 14,000 jobs.
Air Canada has reported a 10% drop in bookings to the U.S. for the April to September period, compared to the same timeframe last year. Overall, foreign visitors are now expected to spend $9 billion less in the U.S. this year, a sharp contrast to 2024 when international tourism to the country increased by 9.1%. The tariffs, initially intended to address the trade deficit, may ironically worsen the trade balance by reducing the number of international travelers and their associated spending.
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International arrivals had been nearing pre-pandemic levels from 2019, but the current outlook suggests they may not reach those levels again until 2029.
The Societal Shift
- Economic Impact: The predicted decline in international tourism could lead to significant financial losses for the travel and hospitality industries, including airlines, hotels, and tourist attractions.
- Job Losses: A decrease in visitors may result in job cuts within sectors reliant on tourism, affecting thousands of workers across the country.
- State Economies: States with strong tourism ties, particularly those bordering Canada, could experience a more pronounced economic downturn.
- Trade Balance: The intended goals of tariffs might backfire, negatively influencing the trade balance by reducing consumer spending by international visitors.
- International Relations: The current political climate, including tensions with other countries, might further strain diplomatic relations and impact future travel policies.
