A well-known saying in Vatican circles suggests that entering a conclave as a pope may lead to exiting as a cardinal. This phrase reflects the sacred and secretive nature of selecting a pope, a process guided not by popularity, but by divine inspiration led by the Church’s princes. Despite this, there are usually favorites, known as “papabili,” who possess several qualities necessary for papacy.
While any baptized Catholic male is eligible for election, cardinals have been exclusively chosen since 1378. The winner must secure at least two-thirds of the votes from cardinals under 80, eligible to participate. Pope Francis has appointed a majority of the current electors, often selecting those who align with his pastoral priorities, suggesting a continuation of his direction more than a departure from it. It’s worth noting that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013 at age 76, and Karol Wojtyla was not among the favorites during the 1978 conclave that elected him as Pope John Paul II.
Possible candidates to succeed Francis include:
- Cardinal Peter Erdo: Born in Hungary on June 25, 1952, Erdo is the Archbishop of Budapest and has twice led the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, indicating his esteem among European cardinals. His interactions with African cardinals and his role in organizing Vatican meetings on the family in 2014 and 2015 highlight his international exposure. He played a significant role during papal visits to Budapest in 2021 and 2023.
- Cardinal Reinhard Marx: Born in Germany on September 21, 1953, Marx has been a key advisor to Francis since 2013 and has led financial oversight at the Vatican. As a former president of the German Bishops’ Conference, he championed the “synodal path” dialogue process in response to clergy sexual abuse scandals, a move that faced skepticism from conservatives. In 2021, Marx offered his resignation to atone for the Church’s abuse history, but Francis declined it.
- Cardinal Marc Ouellet: Born in Canada on June 8, 1944, Ouellet managed the Vatican’s influential bishops’ office for over a decade, selecting bishops reflecting pastoral priorities. Despite being more conservative than Francis, he supported maintaining clerical celibacy and the prohibition on women’s ordination. Ouellet’s deep connections with the Latin American Church and his role in investigating bishops involved in abuse cover-ups suggest his influence.
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: Born in Italy on January 17, 1955, Parolin has served as Francis’ Secretary of State since 2014. His involvement in the Vatican’s contentious agreement with China and his diplomatic background make him a potential candidate. However, his ties to a financial scandal involving a failed real estate investment in London could be a drawback.
- Cardinal Robert Sarah: Born in Guinea on January 15, 1945, Sarah, a former head of the Liturgical Celebrations Office, remains a favorite among conservatives. Known for his traditional stance, he clashed with Francis over clerical celibacy. Although Sarah’s association with a book on this topic created controversy, his supporters continue to advocate for his papal candidacy.
- Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn: Born in Austria on January 22, 1945, the Archbishop of Vienna is recognized for his doctrinal expertise. While he supported Francis’ approach to divorced and remarried Catholics, Schoenborn faced criticism for his handling of abuse cases. His advocacy for civil unions and women’s roles in the Church aligns him with more progressive factions.
- Cardinal Luis Tagle: Born in the Philippines on June 21, 1957, Tagle is viewed as a potential first Asian pope. With a focus on evangelization, Tagle’s administrative and pastoral experience positions him as a favored successor by Francis. However, his relative youth might lead cardinals to prefer an older candidate.
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: Born in Italy on October 11, 1955, the Archbishop of Bologna is closely associated with the Sant’Egidio Community and has been involved in peace negotiations. His progressive stances and connections to the papacy of Francis make him a notable candidate, though his age might play against him for those seeking a shorter papacy.
