AccuWeather’s spring 2025 forecast highlights an increased tornado risk in North Florida and the Panhandle, surpassing other areas in the state.
AccuWeather anticipates between 1,300 and 1,450 tornadoes across the United States in 2025, a slight increase from the historical average of 1,225. Despite Florida’s generally lower risk compared to other regions, the Panhandle and North Florida face the highest threat this spring.
On February 12, an EF-1 tornado with peak winds of 95 mph struck the Pensacola area, as confirmed by the National Weather Service in Mobile. It moved northeast, damaging several metal roofs and blowing out side panels and doors of some buildings. Three individuals suffered minor injuries. Thankfully, the tornado weakened north of Copter Road.
Florida’s tornado frequency is notably higher than any other southeastern state, according to the Florida Climate Center. It even surpasses Oklahoma in tornadoes per 10,000 square miles. Despite generally dry conditions expected this season, moisture from the Gulf of America might increase tornado risks in North Florida and the Panhandle.
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Meteorologist Alexander Duffus from AccuWeather notes that, while dry weather will dominate, occasional moisture incursions could elevate tornado threats in these regions. He also predicts a high-pressure system to keep precipitation below average, with temperatures nearing historical highs.
In terms of 2024 statistics, Florida ranked among the top six states for tornado occurrences with 103 reported incidents, trailing behind Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, and Missouri.
Florida’s tornado season is primarily during spring and summer, with the latter months witnessing short-lived events caused by sea breeze boundary collisions and tropical cyclones. However, spring tornadoes, often more powerful, arise from severe supercells and squall lines preceding a cold front.
Preparation remains key for residents. During tornado watches, having a pre-designated safe room and an accessible emergency plan can make a difference. In case of an active warning, heading to these safe areas is crucial.
The upcoming spring poses a significant tornado risk for North Florida and the Panhandle. Comprehending the conditions and preparing effectively can mitigate potential impacts from these severe weather events.
