A white Christmas, characterized by at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, is a cherished hope for many. However, historical data reveals the likelihood of experiencing such a festive scene varies greatly across the United States.
The probability of a white Christmas is informed by data from the National Weather Service, covering the years 1991 to 2020. Traditionally, areas near the Canadian border and the elevated regions in the western part of the U.S. have the highest chances of snow on Christmas morning. However, historical records show that the probability for most other regions is significantly lower than 50%.
For example, in 2023, only 17.6% of the contiguous U.S. enjoyed a white Christmas—the lowest percentage since records started in 2003. This figure starkly contrasts with the 53% observed in 2022, largely due to Winter Storm Elliott, which swept across the West, Midwest, and parts of the Northeast, leaving significant snow cover.
In the Northeast, regions with a tradition of snowy holidays, such as Syracuse and Buffalo, unfortunately did not see a white Christmas last year. Meanwhile, New York City once saw an impressive 8 inches of snow on December 25 in 1912, with Washington, D.C. reaching 7 inches in 2009. Though recent years have seen less snow during the holiday season, the historical data remains a testament to the variability of winter weather.
New England also experienced a brown Christmas in 2023. Yet, this area is known for its significant snow depths recorded in past decades, such as Boston’s 11 inches in 1995 and Concord’s notable 26 inches in 1970. Similarly, the Midwest, despite a 96% chance for Marquette, Michigan, saw milder conditions with no snow last year. However, past years have recorded up to 13 inches in cities like Cleveland and Detroit.
For the Plains region, while some areas like Pierre, South Dakota, did see snow in 2023, others such as Minneapolis, Duluth, and Bismarck went without. In contrast, 2022 brought snow to Omaha and Kansas City, illustrating the unpredictable nature of snowfall during the holiday season.
The western U.S. showed variations as well, with Billings, Montana, experiencing snow last year, but historic data from 1984 records a peak of 9 inches. Notably, Seattle and Portland, which rarely see white Christmases, celebrated snow in recent memory, demonstrating that even regions with lower probabilities can enjoy this winter wonder.
In the southern U.S., snow on Christmas is a rare delight. Though snow reached as far south as Tennessee in 2022, it has been over a decade since a white Christmas graced much of the South. Historic events in 2009, 2004, and 1989 brought snow to places like Oklahoma City and Charleston, South Carolina, proving the occasional possibility of a white Christmas south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
While the allure of a white Christmas holds a unique charm, historical trends remind us of the unpredictability of winter weather across the United States. Some regions enjoy frequent snow-covered holidays, while others only experience them once in a generation. Yet, for many, the hope of waking up to a snowy Christmas morning remains as enduring as ever.
Source: Weather
