The National Hurricane Center has raised its forecast for potential tropical development in the Caribbean to a 40% chance over the coming week.
This development comes as the hurricane season approaches its conclusion with only 19 days remaining. The Caribbean, known for late-season activity, is now highlighted as a zone with a significant chance for the formation of a tropical depression. This area, marked by an orange annotation, signals a shift from a previously lower probability.
The specific location of formation, if it occurs, will greatly influence its trajectory and potential impact. While there is currently no defined center to monitor, regions including the Turks and Caicos, Jamaica, Cancun, and Tulum are on alert for possible developments. Historically, November is a period conducive to tropical activity in this region, making the current watch all the more pertinent.
Notably, ocean temperatures play a crucial role in tropical cyclone formation, with the Caribbean maintaining temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Fahrenheit. This contrasts with the cooler Gulf of Mexico, which has experienced upwelling and frontal systems cooling its waters, making it less favorable for development. The contrast between these two bodies of water highlights the importance of ocean heat content, which remains high in the Caribbean and could support storm formation.
The previous storm, Rafael, provides a context for current observations. Despite forming in a similar region, Rafael did not threaten coastlines significantly, fading quickly. However, the potential new system might behave differently, depending on how long it lingers over warm waters and the prevailing atmospheric conditions such as moisture levels and upper-level winds. These factors will determine whether a new system can gather strength.
Observers are particularly focused on the possibility of a tropical depression forming near the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras. While there is no immediate cause for alarm, continued monitoring is advised, especially for coastal areas in the Caribbean and the southeastern United States. The next named storm could be “Sarah,” should it develop.
The Caribbean’s current atmospheric conditions include mid-level moisture, favorable for tropical systems, whereas the Gulf of Mexico is less accommodating. As the week progresses, clarity is expected regarding the system’s potential path and development, particularly by Friday when further assessments can refine forecasts.
As the hurricane season nears its end, attention remains on the Caribbean for any signs of tropical development. The combination of warm ocean temperatures and current weather patterns suggests a need for vigilance in the region. Observers and residents alike should keep informed of updates, as potential developments could impact local weather conditions.
Source: Youtube – FOX Weather
