Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has highlighted a notable surge in betting activity on prediction markets, indicating growing speculation that the nation’s Bitcoin holdings could reach $1 billion by late 2025. This increased interest, particularly on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, underscores the closely watched nature of El Salvador’s pioneering cryptocurrency investment strategy.
Prediction Markets See Increased Action
On Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, the odds for El Salvador’s Bitcoin stash hitting the $1 billion milestone before November 2025 saw a significant jump, rising from 20% to 38%. Similarly, the “before December 2025” bet also climbed to approximately 35%, a notable increase from its previous level near 24% in the days leading up to the recent spike.
Following President Bukele’s social media post drawing attention to Kalshi’s market, rival platform Polymarket quickly launched a similar betting opportunity. On Polymarket, the initial odds for El Salvador reaching a $1 billion Bitcoin valuation by December 2025 were listed at 43%, indicating a strong market belief in the country’s potential.
Ongoing Bitcoin Acquisition Controversy
The renewed optimism in prediction markets emerges amid an unresolved controversy surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin purchasing strategy. In July, El Salvador’s central bank president and minister of finance reportedly stated that the country had ceased buying Bitcoin after securing a $1.4 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Despite these official claims, President Bukele and the El Salvador Bitcoin Office have continued to announce new Bitcoin acquisitions through social media. The country’s reported holdings currently stand at 6,282 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $709 million.
Broader Trend in Prediction Markets
The heightened activity surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin bets also coincides with a broader uptick in the prediction market sector. This trend was recently highlighted by the announcement of a $15 million funding round for the prediction market platform Clearing Company, which secured investments from entities including Coinbase Ventures.
The convergence of President Bukele’s public engagement, the dynamic shifts in prediction market odds, and the ongoing questions surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy underscore the volatile and closely watched nature of the nation’s pioneering crypto investment.</
