A sudden offensive by rebel forces on Aleppo, one of Syria’s major cities, has unexpectedly intensified the country’s prolonged civil conflict. This marks the first such attack since 2016, raising significant concerns about renewed instability in the region.
Syria’s ongoing civil war, now in its thirteenth year, has claimed an estimated half-million lives and displaced approximately 6.8 million people. The unexpected rebel offensive on Aleppo, an ancient business hub, is among the most robust attempts by opposition forces in recent years, potentially altering the power dynamics in the region. Aleppo last experienced opposition attacks in 2016 when Russian military intervention helped President Bashar Assad regain control. Recent escalations hint at the possibility of opening another violent front in the Middle East during a period when U.S.-backed Israel is engaged in conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, groups allied with Iran.
Previous U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, noted that months of Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah positions and a recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have provided the rebels with an opportune moment to advance. Such developments underscore the intricate geopolitical struggles at play in the area. Notably, around 30% of Syria remains outside Assad’s control, managed by various opposition forces and foreign military entities. The United States maintains a presence of roughly 900 troops in northeastern Syria to prevent an Islamic State resurgence. Both the U.S. and Israel intermittently conduct strikes targeting government and Iran-affiliated forces, while Turkey exerts influence over opposition forces advancing on Aleppo.
Expert Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute suggests that the recent shifts in territorial control could significantly impact future dynamics if Syrian government forces fail to maintain their positions. The potential for involvement from Islamic State fighters adds another layer of complexity to the ongoing situation. The risk of escalating conflicts involving Russia and Turkey, both with vested interests in Syria, further emphasizes the precariousness of the current situation.
The group spearheading the Aleppo offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been labeled a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and the U.N. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS has attempted to reshape its image, moving away from its al-Qaida affiliations since 2016 and promoting civilian rule within its territories. Despite these efforts, the group has been known to allow certain extremist factions to operate within its controlled areas and has engaged in conflict with U.S. special forces as recently as 2022.
Historically, Aleppo has been at the heart of trade and cultural exchanges for centuries. Before the outbreak of war, it was home to approximately 2.3 million residents. The rebels took control of eastern Aleppo in 2012, symbolizing their advancement against the Assad regime. However, relentless assaults from government forces and Russian airstrikes in 2016 led to a prolonged siege, culminating in the fall of the city back into government hands. The recent rebel resurgence has been met with airstrikes from Syrian forces, marking a continuation of the city’s complex and turbulent history.
The recent developments in Aleppo highlight the ongoing volatility and complex geopolitical tensions in Syria. As parties with varying interests converge, the potential for broader regional implications grows. Observers will be closely watching to see how the Syrian government and international actors respond to these unexpected shifts in the conflict.
Source: NBCMiami