Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
The release of the last 20 living Israeli hostages and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees on October 13, 2025, marked a significant development in the Gaza conflict, prompting US President Donald Trump to declare an end to the war. President Trump, who spearheaded the peace plan, traveled to Israel and Egypt for a summit with world leaders to formalize the ceasefire. Despite this declaration and the initial phase of the plan being implemented, numerous critical questions regarding the conflict’s actual conclusion, future governance, and long-term stability remain unresolved.
Is the War Truly Over?
While Israeli drones, airstrikes, and shelling in Gaza have ceased, and Hamas military wings are no longer targeting Israeli forces, the cessation of fighting does not fully indicate an end to the war. The Israeli military still controls approximately half of Gaza and has stated it will only withdraw after Hamas meets further conditions. President Trump definitively declared “the war is over” upon his arrival in the Middle East for the ceasefire signing. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu countered hours before Trump’s arrival, stating, “the military campaign is not over,” citing concerns about enemies attempting to regroup.
The Next Phase of Negotiations
President Trump indicated that negotiations for the second phase of his plan have already commenced, though specifics on mediators and discussion points were not immediately disclosed. Sources suggest that technical teams have begun phase two talks in Sharm el-Sheikh. A senior Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, indicated that these negotiations would focus on Gaza’s governance, proposing a Palestinian technocratic administrative body for the enclave. Trump’s plan envisions this body operating under the oversight of an international “Board of Peace,” chaired by President Trump and including figures like former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Hamas has expressed openness to Arab and Islamic support but has indicated it would reject an international body ruling Gaza, preferring Palestinian self-determination.
Hamas’s Disarmament and Gaza’s Future Security
A central Israeli demand, and a key component of President Trump’s plan, is the disarmament of Hamas. While Hamas has expressed willingness to transfer governance, it has avoided direct questions regarding laying down its arms. Since the ceasefire, armed Hamas members have reportedly redeployed in parts of the Strip, engaging in clashes with other local groups. President Trump’s deal requires the “demilitarization” of Gaza, including the destruction of all “military, terror, and offensive infrastructure.” An International Stabilization Force (ISF) is slated for deployment once Israel withdraws, but participating nations, including Egypt, are seeking United Nations Security Council approval to legitimize its presence.
Israel’s Withdrawal from Gaza
The Israeli military has only partially withdrawn from its positions, maintaining control over half of the Gaza Strip. A full withdrawal is expected to be phased and conditional on the deployment of a multinational force and Hamas fulfilling its obligations, including disarmament. While Israel has committed to President Trump’s plan, which stipulates it will not “occupy or annex Gaza,” the process is contentious. Far-right members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition have vocally opposed a complete withdrawal, with some advocating for Jewish settlements in Gaza.
Prospects for a Palestinian State
The establishment of a Palestinian state remains one of the most complex issues in fully resolving the conflict. Obstacles include Israeli opposition, the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, the ongoing Gaza situation, and the need for reform within the Palestinian leadership. Over 150 countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia, have recognized a Palestinian state, a move the Trump administration has previously criticized. However, President Trump’s Gaza plan acknowledges Palestinian “aspirations” to statehood without explicitly committing the U.S. to recognition. Following a recent handshake with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Sharm el-Sheikh, President Trump indicated flexibility, stating, “I’m not talking about single state or double state or two state, we’re talking about the rebuilding of Gaza.”
Outlook
Despite President Trump’s declaration of an end to the war and the initial steps towards peace, the future of Gaza remains fraught with uncertainty. Critical issues such as Hamas’s disarmament, the long-term governance of the Strip, the full withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the enduring question of Palestinian statehood continue to pose significant challenges to a lasting resolution. The coming phases of negotiations will be crucial in determining whether the ceasefire truly marks the conclusion of the conflict or merely a pause.
