Politics

How Democrats Are Winning the Blame Game: Why Trump’s Strategy Is Backfiring in the Government Shutdown

Shutdown enters day 21. Dems are winning the blame game due to popular healthcare subsidy support.

October 21, 2025, 9:13 PM

Schumer and Jeffries speak to the press in front of the White House after meeting with the President

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stand together, speaking to reporters in front of the White House. By

Executive Summary

The 21-day federal government shutdown sees Democrats winning the political “blame game,” with public opinion polls consistently blaming Trump and congressional Republicans more.

A key factor in this dynamic is the high popularity of the Democrats’ demand to extend Obamacare subsidies, supported by 72% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans.

As the shutdown intensifies, the critical November 1 deadline for Obamacare open enrollment, which could see premiums double without extended subsidies, provides strategic leverage for Democrats and puts pressure on Republicans.

The Story So Far

The ongoing federal government shutdown stems from Democrats’ demand to extend enhanced Obamacare subsidies, a policy that enjoys significant public support, including among Republicans. This popularity has shifted the political “blame game” dynamic, with President Trump and congressional Republicans now shouldering more responsibility in public opinion polls, unlike previous shutdowns where the demanding party typically faced political setbacks, and the upcoming November 1st deadline for Obamacare open enrollment without these subsidies further intensifies the stakes.

Why This Matters

The ongoing federal government shutdown, now the second-longest in U.S. history, is politically backfiring on President Trump and Republicans, who are shouldering more public blame than Democrats, despite Democrats initiating the shutdown. This dynamic is largely driven by the popularity of the Democrats’ demand to extend Obamacare subsidies, and failure to meet the November 1st deadline for these extensions could lead to significant premium increases for many Americans, further strengthening the Democrats’ strategic position and potentially delivering a key political victory.

Who Thinks What?

President Trump asserts that Democrats are “getting killed in the polls” and are doing “the wrong thing” by initiating the shutdown.

Public opinion polls indicate that Trump and congressional Republicans are receiving more blame for the government shutdown than Democrats.

Democrats believe they are in a strong strategic position to continue the shutdown, given that public opinion favors their demand for extending health care subsidies and the potential political cost to Republicans if premiums increase.

The federal government shutdown has entered its 21st day, making it the second-longest in U.S. history and nearing the 35-day record set during the first Trump administration. As the standoff continues, Democrats appear to be winning the political “blame game,” despite initiating the shutdown with a policy demand for extending enhanced Obamacare subsidies.

Blame Game Dynamics

President Trump recently asserted that Democrats were “getting killed in the polls” and that the public understood their actions were “the wrong thing.” However, this claim is not supported by recent public opinion surveys.

Polling data consistently indicates that Trump and congressional Republicans are shouldering more blame for the shutdown than Democrats. A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted from October 15-20 found Americans blamed congressional Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 50% to 43%.

Similarly, a CNBC poll from October 8-12 showed 53% of Americans blaming Trump and Republicans, compared to 37% who blamed Democrats. Notably, independent voters placed blame on Trump by a nearly 3-to-1 margin (58%-21%).

Historical Context and Policy Popularity

This dynamic marks a departure from previous prolonged shutdowns, such as those in 1995-96 and 2018-19, where the party making the policy demand typically suffered politically. In those instances, the blame for the shutdown consistently fell on the Republican Party, and their poll numbers worsened as the standoffs progressed.

A key factor in the current situation appears to be the popularity of the Democrats’ core demand. The Reuters-Ipsos poll revealed that 72% of Americans, including 51% of Republicans, support extending health care subsidies, a position that has remained consistent across recent surveys.

Looming Deadlines and Strategic Considerations

The shutdown’s impacts are beginning to intensify, with federal employees expected to miss their first full paycheck this week. Additionally, small business loans are being held up, and aid programs like food stamps could soon face interruptions.

A critical deadline for Democrats’ policy objective is November 1, when open enrollment for Obamacare plans begins. Without the extended subsidies, many Americans could see their premiums significantly increase, in some cases doubling, according to the nonpartisan health policy research organization KFF.

For Democrats, the current polling suggests a strategic opportunity to hold out, with some Republicans, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and even Trump’s own pollster, reportedly expressing concerns about the political cost of allowing premium hikes. This could present a significant political win for the party, which has seen few major legislative victories since the November election.

Furthermore, a concession from Democratic leadership, particularly when public opinion appears to favor their position, could risk alienating a base that has often called for a stronger stance from the party.

Outlook

As the shutdown continues, the interplay of public opinion, policy popularity, and looming deadlines is creating a more complex and potentially extended standoff compared to past government shutdowns. The coming days are expected to be pivotal in determining the path forward.