Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Podcast host Joe Rogan recently expressed surprise at President Donald Trump’s intensified mass deportation campaign, a sentiment that new polling data suggests may be shared by a significant portion of the American public. Rogan’s comments, made last week, highlighted the increasingly “brutal and militarized” nature of the deportations, which he stated he “did not ever anticipate seeing on TV on a regular basis.” This public reaction, emerging on October 16, 2025, points to a potential disconnect between campaign promises and the perceived reality of Trump’s second-term actions.
Rogan, known for his heterodox political views and his endorsement of Trump ahead of the 2024 election, specifically cited images of Trump “ripping parents out of their communities.” He remarked that he “really thought they were just going to go after the criminals.” His observations underscore a growing debate about whether the public fully anticipated the scope and severity of the current administration’s policies.
While President Trump openly discussed an expansive and heavy-handed approach to immigration during his campaign, even citing Dwight Eisenhower’s historical deportation efforts, recent surveys indicate a shift in public perception. An AP-NORC poll in April showed 71% of Americans initially claimed Trump’s first few months were mostly what they expected. However, subsequent polling suggests a more nuanced reality regarding expectations.
Evolving Public Sentiment
Shifting Expectations
A CBS News-YouGov poll earlier this month revealed that 52% of Americans believe Trump is doing “the same things he promised in the campaign,” while 48% stated he was doing “different things.” This represents a notable decline from 70% in February and 61% in April who felt he was keeping his promises. These figures suggest a gradual change in public opinion, with a growing number of people re-evaluating their initial expectations.
The CBS poll further indicated that 53% of independents and approximately one in five Republicans believe Trump is not fulfilling his campaign promises. This broad dissent, spanning across political affiliations, challenges the conventional wisdom that the American electorate, or at least a significant portion, fully endorsed the current extent of Trump’s policies.
Specific Policy Surprises
Immigration and Justice Department
Pre-inauguration polling from CNN, The New York Times-Ipsos, and Reuters-Ipsos explored public expectations for Trump’s second term. While majorities predicted policies such as mass deportations and the use of the Justice Department against political adversaries, many underestimated the likelihood or intensity of these actions. For instance, fewer than four in ten Americans believed it was “very likely” that Trump would use the government to investigate and prosecute foes, a move he has since pursued against figures like former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.
Notably, the Reuters-Ipsos poll showed that as many as 69% of Republicans considered it “not likely” that Trump would weaponize the Justice Department against his enemies. Similarly, regarding mass deportations, while a slight majority found it “very likely,” nearly half, including half of Republicans, rated it only “somewhat likely” or “not likely.”
Tariffs and Pardons
The public also seemed to underestimate the extent of other key policies. Only 31% of Americans deemed it “very likely” that Trump would significantly increase tariffs on China and Mexico, a policy he has implemented. Expectations surrounding pardons for January 6, 2021, defendants also varied.
While a CNN poll indicated 78% of Americans predicted Trump would pardon most individuals convicted of crimes related to the Capitol attack, the actual scope of his pardons—which included virtually everyone, even those convicted of assaulting police and seditious conspiracy—may have surpassed expectations. This was further complicated by Trump’s mixed messages regarding his intentions, at times suggesting pardons would be reserved for nonviolent offenders.
Broader Implications
The overall pattern suggests that many voters considered these actions plausible but not necessarily highly probable. This perception may stem from President Trump’s history of making numerous statements, some of which do not come to fruition, allowing individuals to selectively interpret his intentions. This dynamic enables people to dismiss certain rhetoric as mere bluster while believing what aligns with their expectations.
The cumulative effect of these actions appears to be registering with the public. A Pew Research Center poll from June indicated that 48% of Americans believe Trump’s actions have been worse than they expected, compared to approximately two in ten who found them better. This data suggests that Joe Rogan’s “unpleasant surprise” is not an isolated incident but rather reflects a broader sentiment among a significant portion of the American populace.
