Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Former President Barack Obama is significantly escalating his public engagement and adjusting his long-standing strategy of minimizing his presence in Democratic politics, driven by a profound anxiety over President Donald Trump’s actions and their potential impact on American democracy. This shift, observed by close associates and detailed in recent discussions, marks a departure from his previous approach of allowing the next generation of Democratic leaders to emerge.
Obama’s Growing Concerns
Obama, who once expressed confidence in America’s ability to withstand political challenges, is reportedly less certain, with friends noting “darkness and anxiety” replacing his characteristic message of hope. His concerns stem from President Trump’s efforts to restrict Democratic power and calls to target liberal institutions, which Obama fears could undermine future opportunities for new leaders.
Eric Holder, former attorney general and a long-time friend of Obama, emphasized the severity of the situation. Holder stated that the perceived “profound harm” necessitates a different approach from Obama, stressing the importance of engagement and effort to ensure the nation’s and democracy’s survival, despite anticipated damage.
Increased Political Involvement
While campaigning for moderate gubernatorial candidates, such as Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, represents a straightforward aspect of his increased involvement, Obama is reportedly grappling with how to sustain his influence in the years ahead. Now 64, he is navigating a political landscape that some suggest may be moving beyond his previous vision of a united America.
Obama is actively reaching out to business and institutional leaders, urging them to resist making concessions to the current administration, even if it could benefit their financial interests. He is also preparing for potential legal actions that President Trump’s Justice Department might pursue against opponents.
Among the critical issues on Obama’s mind are the possibility of the Supreme Court weakening or striking down the Voting Rights Act, escalating tensions involving immigration agents and National Guardsmen in American cities, and any potential moves by President Trump to extend his term beyond its scheduled end.
Navigating Party Dynamics
Despite his reluctance to be seen as the party’s sole leader, Obama feels compelled to speak out given the perceived threats to the rule of law. He recognizes that his party’s political direction might be evolving but also questions if the Democratic Party’s challenges are deep enough to require his guidance back to relevance.
Obama’s appeal remains potent among Democrats and even independents. For example, in California, his involvement was crucial in Governor Gavin Newsom’s redistricting efforts, where he shifted his stance to support the state’s move against Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas. This demonstrated his unique ability to energize Democrats and engage independents.
However, Obama’s attempts to guide the next generation have also faced scrutiny. A summer phone call to Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist candidate for New York City mayor, sparked debate among some of Mamdani’s supporters who viewed the interaction as a potential co-option.
Lessons from the 2024 Campaign
The 2024 campaign highlighted both Obama’s influence and the challenges of his public role. His comments in Pittsburgh, urging young Black men to support a Black woman candidate, drew significant backlash and led to a swift reworking of his stump speech for subsequent rallies.
Following the election, Obama has emphasized the importance of pushing back against efforts to “stack the deck and lock in a permanent grip on power.” He has since decided that even smaller moments require a response, as seen in his recent appearance in London where he directly rebutted claims made by President Trump.
Aides are now working to amplify Obama’s carefully chosen comments, whether they directly challenge President Trump or frame global authoritarianism through the lens of America’s situation. He has also hosted unannounced gatherings with influencers, including progressive strategists, seeking to understand contemporary media and public attention to inform his future communications.
