Politics

Shutdown Threat: How Trump-Era Cuts and Looming Crisis Could Cripple Disaster Response

Shutdown threatens NOAA, FEMA during hurricane season; staff cuts impact response.

September 30, 2025, 7:56 AM

President Donald Trump speaks to the media with an American flag pin on his lapel

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters, wearing a dark suit, white shirt, and red tie, with an American flag pin on his lapel By Joey Sussman / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

A looming government shutdown threatens to disrupt disaster preparedness and response efforts amidst an active hurricane season.

Both NOAA and FEMA are severely weakened by significant staff reductions since the start of the Trump administration, impacting their operational capacity despite some critical personnel exemptions.

A shutdown would halt FEMA’s resilience and mitigation programs, lapse the National Flood Insurance Program, and create administrative paralysis, hindering long-term disaster management effectiveness.

The Story So Far

The current concerns about disaster preparedness and response during an active hurricane season stem from the impending government shutdown, which threatens to further weaken federal agencies already struggling with significant staff reductions. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have experienced substantial personnel losses since the start of the Trump administration, leaving them understaffed and potentially less capable of handling increased workloads and coordinating efforts effectively.

Why This Matters

The impending government shutdown, amidst an active hurricane season, poses a significant threat to national disaster preparedness and response capabilities, largely due to both NOAA and FEMA operating with substantial staff reductions since the start of the Trump administration, potentially leading to understaffed operations and hindering long-term resilience initiatives; additionally, the National Flood Insurance Program is set to lapse, which would prevent FEMA from issuing new policies.

Who Thinks What?

NOAA officials assert their capacity to accurately predict tropical storms and hurricanes, deploying staff to manage increased workloads despite significant staff reductions since the start of the Trump administration, though they anticipate a shutdown would further impede slow hiring processes and delay crucial guidance.

FEMA leaders and officials express heightened concerns that a shutdown, coupled with significant personnel losses, would result in fewer crucial leadership and support staff, complicating disaster response efforts, potentially halting resilience programs, and allowing the National Flood Insurance Program to lapse.

Anonymous officials from both agencies indicate that both NOAA and FEMA are entering a potential shutdown in a weakened state due to substantial staff reductions since the start of the Trump administration, predicting that a shutdown would be “unnecessarily difficult” and impede hiring and administrative functions.

As two significant tropical systems churn off the Southeast coast, a potential government shutdown looms over the Atlantic hurricane season, threatening to disrupt disaster preparedness and response efforts. While key personnel at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are expected to remain on duty, both agencies are reportedly entering the shutdown in a weakened state due to significant staff reductions since the start of the Trump administration.

Impact on NOAA Operations

Weather forecasters and technicians at the National Weather Service (NWS), a division of NOAA, are largely exempt from furloughs during government shutdowns and are expected to continue their work. Similarly, the crews responsible for flying and maintaining hurricane hunter research aircraft are also anticipated to remain active, ensuring flights that contribute to forecast accuracy can proceed.

Despite these critical exemptions, NOAA has faced challenges, having lost over 560 employees through layoffs and early retirement incentives since the start of the Trump administration. These staff reductions have left some local NWS forecast offices understaffed, impacting operations such as twice-daily weather balloon launches and 24/7 coverage in some instances.

A NOAA official, speaking anonymously, affirmed the agency’s capacity to accurately predict tropical storms and hurricanes, noting that staff are being deployed to coastal offices in storm paths to manage increased workloads. However, the agency’s hiring process to fill these gaps has been described as slow, with new staff requiring months of training, and a shutdown is expected to further impede these efforts.

The agency has submitted its shutdown plan to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) but has not yet received definitive guidance on which parts of the agency will continue to operate. This delay in communication has been noted as unusually late for an imminent shutdown, according to another anonymous NOAA official. Additionally, staff who continue working during a shutdown would not receive pay, adding financial strain.

FEMA’s Preparedness Concerns

FEMA, the primary federal agency for disaster response, faces its own set of challenges. While most of its staff are paid through the Disaster Relief Fund, which typically shields them from furloughs, and furloughed workers can be recalled for disaster response, the agency’s administrative and support teams could be sidelined or forced to work without pay.

Concerns are heightened by significant personnel losses at FEMA, estimated by some to be about a third of its full-time staff this year, including many veteran leaders. The White House’s potential to narrow the definition of “essential staff” during a shutdown could further deplete the agency’s workforce.

Deanne Criswell, who led FEMA under President Biden, highlighted that a shutdown would likely result in fewer personnel in crucial leadership and support roles, complicating disaster response efforts. The agency is also operating under increased scrutiny, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem now required to approve all grants and contracts exceeding $100,000.

A longtime FEMA official, speaking anonymously about the potential for politicization and frustration among career staff, anticipated that a shutdown would be “unnecessarily difficult.” The agency’s reliance on other federal entities means that widespread furloughs elsewhere could impede overall disaster operations, even if FEMA itself largely remains intact.

Beyond immediate disaster response, a shutdown would likely halt FEMA’s general operating budget-funded programs, including key resilience and mitigation initiatives. Furthermore, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is set to lapse on September 30, meaning FEMA would cease issuing new policies, though payouts for valid existing claims with available funds would continue.

Outlook

The confluence of an active hurricane season and an impending government shutdown presents a complex challenge for federal disaster management. While essential forecasting and initial response capabilities are expected to persist, the underlying staffing shortages and potential for administrative paralysis at NOAA and FEMA raise significant questions about the long-term effectiveness and resilience of the nation’s disaster response framework.