Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Leads Incumbent Cornyn in GOP Senate Primary Polling

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged as the frontrunner in the Republican primary for the US Senate, holding a polling lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn despite a significant financial disadvantage and ongoing intra-party concerns regarding his electability. A recent poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs indicates Paxton commands 38% support among likely GOP primary voters, compared to 31% for Senator Cornyn and 17% for US Representative Wesley Hunt.

The primary contest, set for March 3, 2026, represents a critical juncture for the Republican Party in Texas. While Senator Cornyn has secured massive financial backing—with groups supporting him reserving approximately $58.9 million in advertising compared to Paxton’s $2.3 million—Paxton’s populist appeal appears resilient. According to tracking data from AdImpact, the incumbent’s spending advantage has not yet translated into a commanding lead, raising the possibility of a May runoff if no candidate secures 50% of the vote.

National Republican strategists have expressed concern that a Paxton victory could jeopardize a seat essential to maintaining the GOP majority in the Senate. Party insiders argue that Paxton’s polarizing reputation could mobilize Democratic opposition in the general election, potentially breaking the Democrats’ three-decade losing streak in statewide Texas races. Conversely, Democrats view Paxton as a more vulnerable opponent than Cornyn. Rochelle Garza, the 2022 Democratic nominee for attorney general, stated that while Democrats see an opening, Paxton remains a formidable opponent who has previously won statewide by significant margins.

Paxton’s campaign strategy relies heavily on his record of challenging federal policies. Speaking at a campaign event in Magnolia, Texas, Paxton emphasized his history of litigation against the Obama and Biden administrations, positioning himself as a defender of conservative values against federal overreach. He explicitly drew parallels between his own legal and political challenges and those faced by President Donald Trump, urging supporters to disregard negative advertising campaigns. Notably, while President Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in this race, Paxton has received backing from conservative organizations such as Turning Point Action.

Voter sentiment on the ground reflects a divide within the party. Supporters at Paxton’s events characterize him as a “fighter” necessary for the current political climate, prioritizing ideological alignment over controversies. However, other Republican voters cited by CNN expressed hesitation, pointing to Paxton’s “baggage” as a liability that could cost the party the seat in November. These voters indicated a preference for Cornyn or Hunt based on calculations of general election viability.

Electoral Strategic Assessment

The trajectory of the Texas Senate primary highlights a deepening divergence between the Republican donor class and the grassroots base. While institutional resources are heavily leveraged to protect the incumbent, the polling data suggests that anti-establishment sentiment remains a dominant force in primary politics. If Paxton secures the nomination, the general election dynamic will likely shift from a referendum on policy to a referendum on the candidate’s personal controversies. This scenario would force national Republicans to decide whether to divert substantial capital to defend a traditionally safe seat, potentially altering the resource allocation map for the broader midterm cycle. It is important to note that referencing legal controversies involves allegations, and all individuals are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.