Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday to discuss a potential deal to end the war in Gaza, amidst a dramatically altered Middle East. The anticipated talks come as Netanyahu himself is seen by analysts as having undergone a significant transformation in his approach to regional conflicts, making the outcomes of the meeting particularly unpredictable.
Netanyahu’s Evolving Strategy
For two years, following the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, Netanyahu has overseen extensive military operations across the Middle East. These actions, which he highlighted at the United Nations General Assembly last week, include strikes against targets in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, aiming to reshape the region.
This aggressive stance marks a departure from Netanyahu’s earlier political career, where his security policy was often characterized by caution and a preference for brief, contained conflicts. Historically, his approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict, such as Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012, lasted only days, contrasting sharply with the current war, which is nearing its two-year mark.
After the October 7 attacks, Netanyahu pledged to “change the Middle East,” a promise he appears to have pursued with renewed vigor. Analysts note that he now engages in prolonged wars and ground operations, sometimes reportedly against the advice of his own military leadership, including the Israel Defense Forces’ chief of staff, Maj Gen Eyal Zamir.
Perspectives on the Transformation
The question of whether Netanyahu’s shift is a genuine internal evolution or a strategic adaptation is a subject of debate among political observers. Mazal Mualem, author of “The Netanyahu Code,” suggests that October 7 served as a “wake-up call,” prompting him to abandon his risk-averse tendencies and free himself from the security establishment’s caution.
Conversely, Anshel Pfeffer, Israel correspondent for The Economist, argues that Netanyahu remains fundamentally risk-averse, avoiding both wars and diplomatic breakthroughs unless forced. Pfeffer posits that Netanyahu has adapted to a new “status quo” of war, driven by a fear of his far-right coalition partners and a desperation to secure his legacy as Israel’s defender, erasing the memory of October 7.
Domestic and International Challenges
Netanyahu’s current strategy faces significant domestic and international pressures. His far-right allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, oppose any negotiations with Hamas and advocate for a permanent occupation of Gaza, threatening to collapse his government if the war ends prematurely. This political dynamic complicates any potential peace deal proposed by President Trump, especially if it acknowledges aspirations for Palestinian statehood.
Internationally, Israel has seen its legitimacy erode, with growing calls for sanctions and increased recognition of Palestinian statehood. Domestically, public support for the war, initially overwhelming, has also significantly declined.
Trump’s Role in the Evolving Landscape
President Trump’s administration has generally supported Israel’s military actions, but with notable limitations and a mercurial approach. While backing strikes on Iran, Trump has also intervened to halt operations, indicating his unpredictable nature.
Trump’s recent optimistic statements about an imminent deal to end the Gaza conflict suggest he may push Netanyahu towards a new status quo. This could potentially compel the Israeli Prime Minister to confront his political challenges, rather than pursuing a military path to rehabilitate his legacy.
