Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a nearly two-and-a-half-hour phone call on October 16, the eighth such interaction in eight months, ahead of Trump’s scheduled meeting with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington. The Kremlin-initiated discussion, described by Russian officials as “positive and productive,” aimed to dissuade the U.S. from supplying long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine and resulted in an agreement for a second presidential summit in Budapest, Hungary.
Strategic Diplomacy Amid Ukraine Conflict
During the call, President Putin reportedly emphasized that Tomahawk missiles, capable of reaching major Russian cities, would not significantly impact the battlefield but would damage the U.S.-Russian relationship, which he knows Trump values. A Kremlin aide indicated that Putin praised Trump as a peacemaker and offered economic deals. The agreement for a summit in Budapest follows an earlier meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, which, despite a red-carpet reception for Putin, yielded no tangible progress on a Ukraine peace deal.
President Trump is currently weighing the risks of providing Ukraine with these potentially game-changing weapons. His recent success in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and securing the release of Israeli hostages has fueled his confidence in achieving a similar breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the Kremlin has not signaled any willingness to compromise on its maximalist objectives, which include controlling annexed Ukrainian territories and imposing strict military and foreign policy limits on Kyiv.
Ukrainian officials, gathering in Washington, suggested that the discussion surrounding Tomahawk supplies was the catalyst that compelled Putin to re-engage in dialogue. From Moscow’s perspective, the mere prospect of advancing peace talks might be sufficient to entice Trump, who is reportedly eager for a deal, into abandoning his military threats against Russia. The Kremlin has observed that offering personal engagement and the possibility of a short-term diplomatic win can be as effective as any significant concession.
Outlook for U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Relations
The recent phone call underscores Russia’s persistent diplomatic efforts to influence U.S. policy regarding military aid to Ukraine and to leverage President Trump’s pursuit of a peace agreement. While the U.S. considers its next steps on weapons supplies, the agreed-upon summit suggests a continued, albeit complex, engagement between Washington and Moscow, even as Russia’s fundamental war aims in Ukraine remain firm.
