Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump announced a 20-point plan for a Gaza ceasefire on Monday, following talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. Trump declared that an end to the nearly two-year conflict was “closer than ever” after Netanyahu agreed to the parameters of the proposal, which now requires approval from Hamas.
The plan outlines specific provisions, some of which Hamas has previously rejected. Despite these challenges, Trump expressed optimism that the war, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and widespread devastation in Gaza, could soon conclude.
Ceasefire Details and Warnings
The proposed agreement mandates the release of all remaining hostages held by Hamas, both alive and deceased, within 72 hours of Israel’s public acceptance. This immediate deadline puts pressure on Hamas to respond swiftly to the terms.
Both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu issued stern warnings regarding the consequences should Hamas reject the deal. Trump stated his belief in a positive answer but affirmed Israel would have his “full backing” to continue operations if the group declined.
Netanyahu echoed this sentiment, asserting that if Hamas rejects the plan or acts against it, “Israel will finish the job by itself.” He emphasized that the resolution of the conflict “can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way, but it will be done.”
Diplomatic Aspirations and Regional Context
An agreement to end the Gaza conflict would represent a significant diplomatic achievement for Trump, who has openly sought a Nobel Peace Prize and expressed growing frustration over his inability to resolve the situation. American officials believe such a deal could pave the way for a broader transformation of the Middle East, potentially expanding the Abraham Accords.
The Abraham Accords, a signature foreign policy success of Trump’s first term, saw Israel normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The current push for a ceasefire also comes shortly after several Western nations recognized a Palestinian state at the recent United Nations General Assembly.
Governance and Previous Efforts
The current plan, similar to a previous administration proposal, explicitly denies Hamas any future role in the governance of Gaza. Instead, it calls for a two-tiered interim governance structure, comprising an international body and a Palestinian committee.
The international body, named the “Board of Peace,” is slated to be chaired by Trump himself, with other heads of state and members, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, yet to be announced. Trump, while stating he is “very busy,” confirmed he agreed to lead the body at the request of leaders from the Arab world and Israel.
Previous negotiations in late July, which also generated significant optimism, collapsed after the US and Israel withdrew, blaming Hamas for a lack of good faith. Trump has reportedly grown exasperated with Netanyahu’s resistance to ending the war and expanding military operations, at times questioning if he was being manipulated by the Israeli leader.
Tensions deepened earlier this month when Israel launched strikes in Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas leaders. Trump reportedly expressed fury over the operation, fearing it could undermine mediation efforts, especially following a prior ceasefire proposal from his administration. Netanyahu later conveyed his “deep regret” to Qatar’s prime minister over a Qatari serviceman killed in the strike.
Humanitarian Toll and Past Ceasefires
The war has exacted a devastating toll, with the Palestinian Ministry of Health reporting over 66,000 Palestinians killed, including more than 17,000 children. The conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas and other militant groups killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped over 250 others.
There have been only two previous ceasefires since the war began. The first, in November 2023, lasted one week and saw 105 hostages released from Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. A second truce in January 2025, shortly before Trump’s return to the White House, lasted just over eight weeks. During this period, Hamas freed 33 hostages, with Israel releasing approximately 50 Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli freed. However, Israel resumed its offensive on March 18, shattering the ceasefire and derailing further talks, citing the need to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages.
