Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump secured a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal following a summit with world leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Monday. The agreement, which saw 20 Israeli hostages return home, has been lauded as a significant triumph for Trump’s foreign policy approach, which he views as a validation of his unconventional diplomatic methods.
A Diplomatic Triumph
The deal is largely seen as the most substantial global success of Trump’s two presidencies, reportedly leading to widespread acclaim for him in Israel and among the international leaders gathered in Egypt. Trump appeared to relish the adulation, which he rarely experiences domestically, suggesting a potential affirmation of his “America First” populism even among leaders who typically reject it.
Trump views the outcome as proof that his contempt for traditional foreign policy dogmas and establishment peacemaking can yield results. His strategy has emphasized unpredictability, direct engagement, and leveraging real estate moguls as negotiators to pursue what he terms “the art of the deal.”
The Path Forward for Peace
The Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement has prompted questions about its long-term viability. While Trump suggested the “war in Gaza is over,” analysts question if this is hyperbole and whether crucial issues, particularly the omission of a clear path for Palestinian self-determination, could derail the accord. The historical failure to resolve the Palestinian question has led to numerous “false dawns” in Middle East peace efforts.
Trump’s 20-point peace plan calls for an international peace force for Gaza, Hamas disarmament, and a global coalition to rebuild the devastated Strip. However, the plan hints at the possibility of a Palestinian state, a concept opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The sustained engagement required to implement such a complex blueprint remains a key concern, given Trump’s reputation for not focusing on intricate details.
Global and Domestic Implications
The success in the Middle East has been interpreted as an affirmation of U.S. global power, a narrative often promoted by the Trump administration. This raises questions about the implications for other stalled international ventures, such as his peace efforts in Ukraine. Presidents often seek to bolster domestic standing through foreign policy achievements, and the coming days will reveal if this win alters the dynamics of U.S. domestic politics, especially amidst a looming government shutdown.
Trump’s Approach to Foreign Policy
Supporters argue that Trump’s approach, characterized by a reliance on instinct and treating complex political issues as economic or real estate transactions, has proven effective. His choice of negotiator, real estate tycoon Steve Witkoff, and the re-involvement of his son-in-law Jared Kushner, also a real estate magnate, are cited as instrumental to the deal’s success, despite potential ethical considerations related to Kushner’s business interests in the Gulf.
Throughout his two terms, Trump has challenged conventional State Department methods, adopting a more assertive stance akin to right-wing Israeli leaders. This included moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and ordering strikes against Iranian targets, including the killing of Qasem Soleimani. These actions, while controversial, fostered a strong bond with Israelis that Trump leveraged in the recent negotiations.
Critics, however, question why Trump did not intervene earlier to prevent the extensive civilian casualties in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, attacks. The role of European nations in pressuring Netanyahu through their recognition of a Palestinian state also presents a counter-narrative to Trump’s sole credit for the ceasefire.
The success in the Middle East could encourage Trump to apply similar assertive tactics to other conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. After initially failing to match peace plans with meaningful pressure, a hardening of his tone towards Netanyahu and the unveiling of his 20-point plan, co-developed with Arab states, demonstrated a shift. This could suggest a willingness to exert similar duress on Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly as Ukraine seeks more advanced weaponry from the U.S.
Domestic Political Landscape
Despite the international peacemaking role, it appears unlikely that Trump will adopt a more conciliatory approach to domestic politics. His administration’s history of ruthless firings, attempts to manipulate the justice system against perceived enemies, and an ongoing focus on avenging past political and personal grievances suggest little parallel between his call for unity abroad and his actions at home.
Nevertheless, Trump’s deal-making drive could complicate matters for House Speaker Mike Johnson. In a notable move last week, Trump bypassed Republican pressure points on Democrats by finding a workaround to ensure military personnel would receive pay during a government shutdown. He has also shown openness to discussing extensions for Affordable Care Act subsidies, a position divergent from some congressional Republican leaders.
Trump’s preference for strongmen and autocratic leaders was evident in his praise for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Qatari leaders, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He lauded their “toughness” and their ability to maintain order, contrasting it with the U.S. system. He also controversially urged Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu, who faces corruption allegations, dismissing them as trivial.
Unlikely Shift in Leadership Style
While the Gaza ceasefire represents a significant foreign policy achievement for President Donald Trump, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter his domestic leadership style. His consistent reverence for unconstrained power and apparent envy of leaders immune from the legal and political checks that still exist in the United States suggest that this triumph will not lead to a tempering of his confrontational approach at home.
