Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-made movies via a Truth Social post on Monday, September 29, 2025. The move, which would mark the first time his administration has imposed a tariff on a service rather than a physical good, was presented as a measure to counter tax incentives offered by other countries that draw filmmakers away from the United States.
Trump did not specify the timeline or mechanism for enacting the proposed tariff. He highlighted California as a state particularly affected by filmmakers moving abroad, despite the state and other American cities offering their own tax incentives to retain production.
Industry Reaction and Context
The announcement caught Hollywood by surprise, with an industry insider telling CNN at the time of an initial threat in May that such a tariff would be “shocking” and could “represent a virtually complete halt of production.” However, the insider also questioned the feasibility and jurisdiction for such an enforcement.
Jay Sures, vice chairman of United Talent Agency, noted in May that despite American actors and directors preferring to work domestically, overseas production often proves “infinitely cheaper” due to lower labor costs and other factors. Following Trump’s latest post, shares of Netflix (NFLX) opened down 1% on Monday, while other movie-related companies like AMC (AMC) and The Walt Disney Company (DIS) saw their shares open higher.
The US box office has experienced a significant decline since its peak of nearly $12 billion in 2018, plummeting to just over $2 billion in 2020 due to the pandemic. While theaters have rebounded, the number of major film releases remains about half of 2019 levels, and total domestic box office gross has not exceeded $9 billion since then, as consumer habits have shifted towards streaming platforms.
Broader Tariff Plans
Beyond films, Trump’s administration is preparing to implement several other tariffs. As of Wednesday, September 30, 2025, a 100% tariff on branded drugs (with some exceptions), a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and vanities, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture are set to be imposed.
In a separate social media post on Monday, Trump indicated plans for an additional “substantial” tariff on all furniture imported into the United States. These announcements signal a broader strategy of leveraging tariffs across multiple sectors of the economy.
