Executive Summary
- President Trump notably omitted Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, from his remarks during a Sunday event in Virginia, despite endorsing another Republican.
- Earle-Sears is navigating a challenging gubernatorial race, facing significant public poll deficits and internal Republican concerns about her campaign’s effectiveness.
- The omission of an endorsement is particularly striking given Earle-Sears’ past role as national chairwoman for Black Americans to Reelect Trump in 2020, despite her later public statement that Trump should not run again.
The Story So Far
- Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, is navigating a challenging race marked by significant public poll deficits and internal Republican concerns about her campaign’s effectiveness. Her relationship with Donald Trump is complex; despite having chaired his 2020 reelection campaign, she later stated he should not run again, calling him a “liability,” and has not secured his endorsement even after a recent meeting. This lack of explicit backing from Trump is particularly impactful as her Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, is actively campaigning by linking Earle-Sears to Trump’s policies and branding her as a “MAGA Republican” to portray her as “too far right” for Virginia.
Why This Matters
- The omission of an endorsement for Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears, by President Trump during his visit to the state underscores her campaign’s precarious position, potentially hindering her ability to unify the Republican base and overcome significant poll deficits, especially as Democrats leverage her ties to Trump’s policies without the benefit of his direct, full-throated support.
Who Thinks What?
- President Donald Trump chose not to endorse Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears during his visit to Virginia, despite endorsing Attorney General Jason Miyares and praising other Virginia Republicans, a decision made amid Earle-Sears’ significant poll deficits and internal Republican concerns about her campaign.
- Winsome Earle-Sears is navigating a challenging gubernatorial race with significant poll deficits and internal GOP concerns, while also lacking an explicit endorsement from Donald Trump despite her past support for him and a recent meeting.
- Abigail Spanberger’s campaign is leveraging Donald Trump’s policies as a vulnerability for Earle-Sears, characterizing her as a “MAGA Republican” and criticizing her as “so far right she’s wrong for Virginia,” linking her to perceived negative impacts of Trump’s actions on Virginia.
President Donald Trump notably omitted Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, from his remarks during an event for the US Navy’s 250th anniversary held in Virginia on Sunday. The absence of an endorsement or even a mention of Earle-Sears comes as she faces significant public poll deficits and internal Republican concerns about her campaign’s effectiveness ahead of the November 4 election.
Trump’s Endorsements and Omissions
While in Virginia, Trump did issue an endorsement for Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares in his reelection bid through a social media post. This endorsement followed the surfacing of controversial text messages from Miyares’s Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, about a month before Election Day. In the same post, Trump criticized Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger for allegedly not acknowledging Jones’s actions, despite Spanberger’s public statement condemning the texts.
The decision not to mention Earle-Sears is particularly striking given her extensive campaigning in the Hampton Roads area, where Trump delivered his speech. During his address, Trump praised other Virginia Republicans with Navy service, including Representatives John McGuire, Rob Wittman, and Jen Kiggans, but did not extend the same recognition to Earle-Sears, a retired Marine.
Earle-Sears’ Political Standing
Earle-Sears is navigating a challenging gubernatorial race, with recent polls indicating a significant gap between her and Spanberger. A Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday showed Spanberger with 55% support among likely voters, compared to 43% for Earle-Sears, with the Democrat holding a strong advantage among independent voters.
Her campaign has also reportedly faced concerns from within the GOP regarding its execution. In response, Earle-Sears has made transgender policies a central theme of her messaging, challenging Spanberger on issues such as school bathroom access and sports team participation for trans youth.
A Complicated Relationship with Trump
The relationship between Trump and Earle-Sears has been complex, contributing to the anticipation of whether Trump would endorse her. Earle-Sears served as the national chairwoman of Black Americans to Reelect Trump in 2020, actively campaigning across the country on his behalf.
However, in a 2022 interview with Fox News, Earle-Sears stated that Trump should not run again, remarking, “A true leader understands when they have become a liability.” Despite this, Trump did run and won, solidifying his influence over the conservative base that Earle-Sears needs for turnout in the upcoming election. While she met with Trump in the Oval Office earlier this year, no endorsement materialized from that meeting, and Earle-Sears has declined to discuss the details of their conversation.
Democratic Strategy Against Earle-Sears
Abigail Spanberger’s campaign has sought to leverage Trump’s policies as a vulnerability for Earle-Sears, characterizing her as a “MAGA Republican” and criticizing her as “so far right she’s wrong for Virginia.” Spanberger’s campaign has linked Earle-Sears to rural clinic closures following the passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and to job losses in Virginia attributed to the Department of Government Efficiency.
Spanberger’s campaign stated that Earle-Sears has defended Trump’s actions regarding Virginia workers and has refused to oppose potential future initiatives like “DOGE 2.0,” which the campaign suggests could threaten Virginia jobs, particularly among the state’s more than 300,000 federal workers.
Election Outlook
As the November 4 election approaches, Winsome Earle-Sears faces the dual challenge of uniting the Republican base and appealing to broader Virginia voters, all while navigating a gubernatorial race without the explicit backing of President Trump, who remains a significant figure in Republican politics.
