Recent research reveals a mismatch between the availability of empty-nest homes and regions facing critical housing shortages, posing challenges for younger buyers.
The anticipated influx of homes from older owners, often referred to as the “silver tsunami,” was expected to alleviate housing shortages. However, new findings from Zillow indicate that these homes are predominantly situated in areas where housing is already accessible, not in high-demand regions where they are needed the most.
According to Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow, empty-nest households—those without children at home and residents aged 55 or older—are concentrated in more affordable markets. These include cities like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit, where housing remains relatively affordable. Unfortunately, these homes are not in expensive coastal job centers where younger workers are moving and housing demand is intense.
As of 2022, an estimated 20.9 million empty-nest households existed across the United States, compared to 8.1 million families who were living with non-relatives and likely in need of independent housing. This disparity highlights a geographical disconnect between supply and demand, making it challenging to address housing affordability in expensive metros.
Markets like San Jose, Austin, and Denver, which have seen significant influxes of millennials and Gen Zers, face more substantial housing affordability challenges. These areas, unlike those with high concentrations of empty-nest households, have fewer older homes available for potential buyers.
Zillow’s research emphasizes that the critical solution to affordability issues in these expensive, high-demand markets lies not in reallocating existing housing stock from older individuals but in expanding new home construction. Regions with stringent land-use restrictions are particularly affected by housing shortages, suggesting that promoting denser development and easing barriers to homeownership could help.
Assisting potential homeowners through programs like credit support, down payment assistance, or help with closing costs could improve access to ownership, easing the bottleneck in affordable housing availability.
Addressing housing shortages, especially in high-demand markets, requires a multifaceted approach that includes new construction and supportive homeownership programs, as the current distribution of empty-nest homes does not align with the areas of greatest need.
Source: Floridarealtors
