Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Apple’s latest iPhone 17 series has launched in China to an enthusiastic reception, with analysts projecting a significant boost to the company’s market share and shipments in the competitive landscape. Hundreds of buyers queued at Apple’s flagship Beijing store on launch day, drawn by the new models’ redesign, particularly the Pro Max, which is anticipated to be a key driver for sales amidst intensifying competition and fluctuating consumer demand.
Launch Day Enthusiasm
On Friday, the launch day for the iPhone 17, approximately 300 individuals gathered at Apple’s flagship store in Beijing to collect their online orders. Among them was Shuke Wang, 35, who purchased the Pro Max model, priced from 9,999 yuan ($1,406) in China. Wang expressed his appreciation for the 17 series’ redesign, noting the appeal of the Pro Max’s longer battery life.
Apple highlights that the base model iPhone 17 features a brighter, more scratch-resistant screen and an improved front-facing camera designed for better horizontal selfies. The company, however, does not disclose pre-order figures for its new devices.
Market Share Projections
The new iPhone 17 series is expected to provide a crucial end-of-year lift to Apple’s presence in China, a market where its shipments have faced pressure from rivals like Xiaomi and Huawei. Data from Counterpoint Research indicated a 6% decrease in Apple’s shipments during the first eight weeks of the third quarter.
Chiew Le Xuan, a senior analyst at Omdia, forecasts an 11% year-over-year increase in iPhone shipments in China for the second half of the year, driven by the new series. This surge is expected to contribute to a 5% full-year growth for Apple in 2025.
The Pro Max Model
The iPhone 17 Pro Max is specifically predicted to outperform its predecessor, the 16 Pro Max, largely due to its major redesign. According to Chiew, such design overhauls have historically stimulated replacement demand in China, positioning the 17 Pro Max to become Apple’s top-performing model in the Chinese market in 2026.
Introduction of the iPhone Air
The iPhone Air is notable as the sole model in China slated to support eSIM, a digital SIM embedded within the device, with backing from major telecom operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. However, Apple has not yet initiated pre-sales for the Air in China, stating that the availability of eSIM services is contingent on regulatory approval.
Will Wong, a senior smartphone analyst at IDC, suggests the iPhone Air could serve as a “testbed” for thin-and-light technology, potentially paving the way for a future foldable iPhone. However, Wong anticipates the Air will not deliver a significant sales boost, as its slimmer design involved trade-offs in battery life, camera, and audio quality—features highly valued by Chinese consumers.
Outlook for Apple in China
The launch of the iPhone 17 series, particularly the redesigned Pro Max, marks a pivotal moment for Apple in the intensely competitive Chinese market. While facing strong domestic competition and weak consumer demand, the new models are anticipated to reinvigorate Apple’s sales and market share, with the Pro Max expected to be a key driver of this resurgence.
