Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Recent pledges from the European Union, China, and other significant global economies regarding emissions cuts by 2035 have been widely criticized by climate experts as insufficient to align with the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming target. These announcements, made during a United Nations climate summit, come as the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and President Donald Trump’s skepticism towards climate action place increased pressure on other major powers to demonstrate leadership.
Disappointment Over Ambition
Climate campaigners had expressed hope for more robust commitments from the EU and China, especially following President Donald Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly where he voiced scorn for climate action. However, many were left disappointed by the subsequent announcements at the UN climate summit in New York.
Tracy Carty, a climate change politics specialist from Greenpeace International, underscored the sentiment, stating, “The US is absent. China and the EU have not raised each other’s ambition enough and even Australia, which is bidding to host COP31, has presented a weak target.”
China’s Pledge Under Scrutiny
Chinese President Xi Jinping informed the summit that China, the world’s largest emitter, aims to cut emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035 against peak levels. This shifts its previous goal for emissions to peak by “around 2030” to an earlier timeframe.
President Xi also appeared to subtly criticize President Trump’s climate stance, remarking, “While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction.”
Despite the rhetoric, some climate experts deemed China’s goal “timid” and too easily achievable, given the nation’s rapid deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles. They argued the target lacked the necessary ambition to significantly impact global climate goals.
EU’s Internal Divisions Reflect in Target
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed calls for continued climate action, stating, “the clean transition is moving on” and “Europe will stay the course.” However, the EU’s announced 2035 reduction target was presented as a range, between 66% and 72% below 1990 levels.
This flexibility reflects ongoing internal negotiations among EU member states, with several reportedly pushing to weaken the European Commission’s initial ambitions. The lack of a firm, higher target was seen by some experts as underwhelming, failing to match the urgency of the climate crisis.
Global Commitments and Missing Filings
Beyond the EU and China, a few other nations announced new targets. Nigeria pledged to cut emissions 32% below 2018 levels by 2035, though four-fifths of this target is contingent on foreign assistance. Pakistan committed to a 17% reduction below a business-as-usual projection by 2035.
Crucially, many other major economies, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and South Korea, have yet to submit their climate plans. This is despite an end-of-September deadline for their inclusion in a UN progress report, raising concerns about the collective global effort.
Overall Assessment of Insufficient Ambition
The nonprofit research group World Resources Institute (WRI) reported that only 53 governments, representing a quarter of the world’s emissions, had filed their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a figure that did not include China or the EU. Ani Dasgupta, WRI’s CEO, stated that the new NDCs “do not put us anywhere near on track for a safe future.”
Dasgupta highlighted the “immense political challenge countries face in transforming their entire economy.” Greenpeace’s Carty agreed, warning that the NDCs are “dangerously off track and without a serious shift, we’ll soar past 1.5C.” Teresa Anderson of ActionAid criticized governments for “running scared from the corporations that care only for short-term profits over long-term survival of the planet.”
Emerging Positives and Legal Pressures
Despite the overall apprehension, some positive developments were noted. Gina McCarthy, co-chair of the America Is All In coalition and former climate adviser to then U.S. President Joe Biden, applauded world leaders for submitting updated climate plans aligning with the Paris Agreement targets.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shared that solar energy has surged seven-fold since 2021 in his country, driven by citizens adopting rooftop solar panels to counter frequent power outages. Similar solar booms are occurring in several African nations experiencing power disruptions.
Leaders from the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, Pacific island nations highly vulnerable to climate change, warned fellow politicians that a recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion could legally compel countries to increase their climate targets and policies. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine directly challenged G20 nations, stating, “as the ICJ decision confirms, you are legally required to. You must deliver stronger NDCs that can meet 1.5C and can say how you will transition away from fossil fuels.”
Further leveraging this legal momentum, Ralph Regenvanu, the climate minister of Vanuatu, announced his country is drafting a UN General Assembly resolution to translate the ICJ advisory opinion into “political action.” Regenvanu noted that individual governments would be unable to block this resolution, as the UN General Assembly votes by majority, ensuring “no veto power to block this resolution going through.”
Outlook on Climate Action
The current round of national climate pledges signals a critical juncture for global climate action, with experts warning of a significant shortfall in ambition against the 1.5C target. While some countries show progress and legal pressures mount, the collective response from major emitters like the EU and China has left many climate advocates calling for more decisive steps to avoid dangerous warming.
