Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Former Labour leader Lord Neil Kinnock has urged current Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to consider rejoining the European Union to address the UK’s economic challenges and the ongoing small boat crisis. Lord Kinnock, who led the Labour Party from 1983 to 1992, emphasized that the country can no longer sustain the “huge self-inflicted losses” resulting from its departure from the EU, advocating that renewed membership would significantly boost economic growth.
Economic Imperatives for Rejoining
Lord Kinnock highlighted the substantial economic benefits of rejoining the EU, particularly the single market. He stated that membership could eliminate an economic growth deficit estimated at £100 billion annually, which translates to a £40 billion loss in tax revenue for the government.
He argued that such losses are unsustainable and hinder investment and job creation. Rejoining, he suggested, would not be a marginal gain but could add approximately five percent to the UK’s GDP, providing a crucial boost at a time of significant economic need.
Addressing the Migration Challenge
Beyond economics, Lord Kinnock contended that EU membership would enhance Britain’s capacity to manage irregular migration, specifically the issue of small boat crossings. He referenced the Dublin Protocol, which the UK participated in until 2021.
Under this protocol, individuals arriving by irregular means could be returned to the last EU country they transited through, typically France. Lord Kinnock asserted that the protocol served as a significant deterrent, leading to far fewer irregular arrivals before the UK’s full departure from the EU.
Regarding free movement, Lord Kinnock noted that the system was not always effectively enforced prior to Brexit. He suggested that a properly managed system, where individuals without employment within three months are required to return home, would provide reassurance to the public.
He also pointed out that migrant workers from the EU historically generated a surplus revenue of £2.6 billion to £3 billion annually, contributing significantly to the economy while making limited demands on public services.
Paths to Re-engagement
While advocating for full EU membership, Lord Kinnock also expressed support for alternative forms of re-engagement, such as rejoining the single market. He cited a 2018 proposal by his son, Steve Kinnock MP, suggesting rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) alongside Norway.
This approach would allow the UK to participate in the single market and customs union without being subject to all EU rules or direct representation in the European Council or Parliament. However, Lord Kinnock ultimately prefers full membership for the influence and power it would grant the UK within its largest market.
Political Considerations and Government Stance
Lord Kinnock acknowledged the political difficulties a Labour government would face in pursuing EU re-entry, anticipating a significant debate that could divert focus from other priorities like economic growth and public service restoration. He understood the government’s reluctance but maintained that a serious commitment to sustained economic growth would eventually necessitate re-engagement with the single market.
In response to such calls, a government spokesperson affirmed that the UK will not be rejoining the European Union. They highlighted the new UK-France Treaty, which allows for the detention and return of small boat arrivals to France, noting that the first returns under this arrangement have already commenced.