Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Recent local election results in Kosovo are poised to complicate Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s political strategies and could provide the European Union with renewed leverage to advance stalled normalisation talks with Serbia. The vote, held last Sunday, saw Kurti’s ruling Vetëvendosje party underperform in key urban centers, while the Belgrade-backed Serbian List secured significant victories in Serbian-majority municipalities.
Election Outcomes
Vetëvendosje will face runoffs in November in crucial urban areas, including Pristina, Prizren, and Mitrovica. In contrast, the Serbian List, which boycotted the previous elections, won outright in nine Serbian-majority municipalities and is expected to proceed to a runoff in a tenth against another Serbian rival party. Overall voter participation was low, with only 39.07% of eligible voters casting a ballot.
Context of Tensions and Normalisation Efforts
These local elections unfolded amid a backdrop of deep institutional gridlock, following the February 2025 parliamentary elections, and years of strained relations between Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority and ethnic Serb minority. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a move Belgrade still refuses to recognise.
The European Union has actively led efforts to establish “normalisation agreements” aimed at regulating economic and administrative ties between Kosovo and Serbia, alongside safeguarding the rights of Kosovo’s ethnic Serb minority. Prime Minister Kurti and his nationalist Vetëvendosje party have frequently been at odds with political leaders in Serb-majority regions, particularly in northern Mitrovica.
Serbian List’s Resurgence and Policy Implications
The strong comeback of the Serbian List marks a significant shift in northern municipalities, where Vetëvendosje had sought to consolidate control in recent years. Prime Minister Kurti had previously described the Serbian List as a “political branch of Serbian state terrorism.”
The last local elections saw most Serb voters boycott, leading to the election of ethnic Albanian mayors with very low turnouts, some as low as 3%. This was followed by violent protests in June 2022, which resulted in injuries to several KFOR/NATO soldiers.
Since then, Kurti’s government has pursued a policy of “sovereignty” in the predominantly Serbian north, involving the closure of Serbian-linked municipal institutions and the deployment of militarised police. His administration has largely bypassed the EU-led Kosovo–Serbia dialogue, but the reinstatement of the Serbian List in local governance positions is expected to complicate these strategies.
Constitutional Constraints and Brussels’ Opportunity
Pristina recently announced intentions to integrate Serbian education and healthcare systems into Kosovo’s framework, despite constitutional pledges to protect the independence of Serbian institutions. Without cooperation from newly elected local officials, these plans may prove challenging to implement, potentially necessitating a policy recalibration by Vetëvendosje.
For Brussels, the return of the Serbian List presents an opportunity to press Pristina on compliance with agreements and institutional inclusion. Augustin Palokaj, a Brussels correspondent for Kosovar news outlet Koha, highlighted the EU’s specific interest in northern Kosovo, where they anticipate “the return of Kosovo Serbs to Kosovo institutions.”
The European Union’s External Action Service previously rebuked Vetëvendosje’s attempts to de-certify the Serbian List and restrict Serbian-language media coverage during elections. At the time, the EU stated that “any exclusion of political actors goes against the fundamental principle of meaningful democratic participation of all communities in the electoral process.”
Mounting International Pressure and Domestic Stalemate
Kosovo has been subject to punitive EU measures for over two years, limiting financial support due to the government’s treatment of the Serb minority and unilateral actions in the north. The United States also suspended Strategic Dialogue talks last month, citing similar concerns and demanding de-escalation from Pristina.
Despite this mounting international pressure, Prime Minister Kurti has shown little inclination to alter his government’s course. Domestically, Kurti faces significant political challenges in Pristina.
Following the last parliamentary elections, Vetëvendosje secured a plurality but not a majority, leading to eight months of political deadlock, including failed coalition negotiations and repeated unsuccessful attempts to elect parliamentary leadership. Kosovo’s Constitutional Court intervened to grant Vetëvendosje a mandate, yet major Albanian opposition parties have refused to cooperate.
In response to the ongoing stalemate, Kurti has remained defiant, stating, “If there is no Kurti III government, we are undoubtedly ready for new parliamentary elections.”
Outlook on EU Leverage
With impending runoffs in strategic municipalities and the contestation of institutional control in the north, the EU finds a renewed opportunity to advocate for Serb participation in Kosovo institutions and a return to dialogue. However, whether this translates into substantial policy changes in Pristina will depend on a combination of sustained international pressure, domestic coalition dynamics, and the stability of the delicate balance in the north.
Analysts remain cautious about immediate policy shifts. Aleksandar Sljuka, a researcher at the Mitrovica-based New Social Initiative, argued that Kurti is unlikely to concede “unless there is a clear and consistent signal from Brussels that his current approach carries real political costs.”
