Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Moldova is preparing for pivotal parliamentary elections on September 28, a contest where the country’s aspirations for European Union membership are at stake amid significant Russian interference. President Maia Sandu’s reformist Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) faces a concerted effort by Moscow to prevent it from securing a parliamentary majority, a crucial step for advancing EU accession talks. This situation has prompted senior European officials to visit Chișinău, emphasizing the importance of a pro-reform parliament for the nation’s European future.
The Stakes for Moldova’s EU Path
The upcoming parliamentary elections are deemed critical because a loss of control by President Sandu’s PAS party could jeopardize Moldova’s goal of joining the EU within this decade. Moldova is currently engaged in accession talks with the EU, which necessitate deep reforms across various sectors. If parties less committed to these reforms gain control of parliament, passing the necessary legislation for EU membership could become difficult, or even impossible.
In late August, high-ranking European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, visited Chișinău. Their visits aimed to underscore to Moldovan voters the necessity of electing a parliament committed to reform if they wish to realize the benefits of EU membership.
Russia’s Multifaceted Influence Campaign
The Kremlin is actively working to prevent PAS from achieving a majority in the upcoming election, reportedly backing two distinct political entities. One is the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, described as an alliance of communists and socialists largely loyal to Moscow. The second is the National Alternative Movement, led by Chișinău Mayor Ion Ceban, which claims to favor EU membership, though its actual commitment is questioned by the dispatch.
The dispatch suggests Moscow’s support for these two parties is likely based on a calculation that while PAS may secure a plurality of votes, the two largest opposition groups could collectively form a majority. This scenario would make cooperation with PAS unlikely, thereby obstructing the reform agenda. This interference is identified as the latest in Russia’s more than two-decade effort to influence its neighbors’ elections.
Traditional and Modern Tactics
Russia employs both established and evolving tactics to manipulate elections. Traditional methods include providing substantial funding, reportedly hundreds of millions of dollars, to favored political parties. This money is used for campaign activities and vote buying, which in the past has led to disqualifications and indictments.
Moscow is also quick to leverage new opportunities for election manipulation. In recent Moldovan elections, pro-Kremlin actors have reportedly recruited online “ambassadors” to amplify anti-EU propaganda, offering tiered financial incentives. They have also established vast networks of fake media outlets to circumvent Moldovan and EU sanctions, issued death threats to public figures to suppress voter turnout, and allegedly paid unwitting Western celebrities to produce anti-PAS and anti-Sandu content.
Of particular concern are the possibilities for election manipulation presented by artificial intelligence. AI enables the creation of sophisticated “news stories” that appear to be of Western origin but are, in fact, generated by Kremlin-controlled bot farms. These farms are reportedly located not only in Russia but also in African countries and the target nations themselves, including Moldova.
Moldovan Authorities Respond
Moscow’s efforts are designed to either block PAS from winning a parliamentary majority or, failing that, to instigate demonstrations and public disorder to protest its victory. Recognizing these threats, Moldovan authorities conducted police raids across the country on September 22. These operations resulted in the arrest of 74 individuals suspected of preparing public disturbances.
Outlook Ahead of the Vote
Current polls do not indicate that President Sandu’s party will secure the desired majority. However, several Moldovan officials cited in the dispatch expressed cautious optimism about the upcoming vote, anticipating a significant boost from diaspora voters in Europe and the United States. This dynamic played a role in President Sandu’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. Despite the challenges, many Moldovans remain enthusiastic about joining the EU, a sentiment that may prove crucial in keeping the country on its path of reform.
