World

Russia’s Non-GMO Soybean Strategy: How Moscow Plans to Thrive Amidst China-US Trade Dynamics

Russia assures China of non-GMO soybean safety amid US deal. Aiming to expand exports despite the new agreement.

byAndres Castro

November 1, 2025, 7:57 PM

The modern skyscrapers of the Moscow City business center, including the bronze Mercury City Tower, glow in the sunset.

A drone's view of the glass facades of the Moscow City business centre at sunset. By d13 / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

Russia is confident in its non-genetically modified (non-GMO) soybean exports to China, positioning itself as the exclusive supplier for food production amidst China’s recent large purchasing agreement for genetically modified soybeans with the United States.

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut visited China to expand broader agricultural trade, reporting a 10% increase in other exports like oils, fish, and meat, while also seeking market access for winter wheat.

Russia’s 2016 ban on GMO farming is a strategic move to capitalize on the expanding global non-GMO food market, projected to grow significantly, with Russia expecting a record soybean harvest and increased export potential.

The Story So Far

Russia has strategically positioned itself as an exclusive supplier of non-genetically modified (non-GMO) soybeans, having banned GMO farming in 2016 to capitalize on the growing global non-GMO food market. This focus allows Russia to cater to China’s specific demand for non-GMO soybeans used in food products like tofu and soy milk, differentiating its exports from the genetically modified varieties primarily supplied by the United States for animal feed, even amidst a significant recent purchasing agreement between China and the United States, facilitated by President Donald Trump.

Why This Matters

Despite China’s recent substantial soybean deal with the United States, Russia is strategically leveraging its exclusive non-GMO soybean production to secure a specialized, growing niche in the Chinese food market, differentiating itself from primarily GMO U.S. exports. This focus, part of Russia’s broader ambition to expand agricultural trade, aims to deepen economic ties with China and capitalize on the projected multi-trillion-dollar global non-GMO market, while also pushing for access for other key commodities like winter wheat.

Who Thinks What?

Russia, through its government sources and Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, affirms the safety and market for its non-genetically modified (non-GMO) soybean exports to China, seeing no threat from China’s deal with the United States due to Russia’s unique position as the sole supplier of non-GMO varieties for food use, and seeks to expand broader agricultural exports to China.

China maintains a diverse soybean import strategy, purchasing large quantities of genetically modified soybeans from the United States primarily for animal feed, while also relying on Russia as the exclusive supplier of non-GMO soybeans for various food products such as tofu and soy milk.

Russia has affirmed the safety of its non-genetically modified (non-GMO) soybean exports to China, a Russian government source told Reuters on Saturday, even as Beijing recently concluded a significant soybean purchasing agreement with the United States. This assurance comes as Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut visited China this week to discuss expanding agricultural trade, positioning Russia as a key supplier of non-GMO products amidst China’s diverse import needs.

Russia’s Non-GMO Niche

Russia, which ranks a distant fifth among soybean exporters to China, exclusively supplies non-GMO soybeans. These are crucial for producing various food items such as tofu, soy milk, and soy sauce in China.

The recent deal between China and the United States, facilitated by President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, commits China to purchasing 12 million tons of American soybeans during the current season. The United States primarily provides genetically modified soybeans, which are typically used for animal feed.

Ministerial Talks and Export Ambitions

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut met with her Chinese counterpart Han Jun in Beijing this week. Her visit aimed to expand Russia’s agricultural exports to China, despite the new U.S.-China soybean agreement.

A Russian government source, who requested anonymity, expressed confidence in the market, stating, “I think there is no threat to our non-GMO soybean exports. We are the only ones in the world growing it.”

Record Harvest and Market Strategy

The IKAR consultancy estimates Russia’s non-GMO soybean exports to China could reach up to 0.8 million tons this season. Dmitry Rylko of IKAR projects Russia’s total soybean exports could reach one million tons, following an expected record harvest of up to 9 million metric tons this year.

Russia banned GMO farming in 2016, a strategic move to capitalize on the expanding global non-GMO food market. Fortune Business Insights projects this market to grow from $895 billion in 2025 to $2 trillion by 2032.

Broader Agricultural Trade

Beyond soybeans, Minister Lut reported a 10% increase in Russian agricultural exports to China during January–September, driven by products like sunflower and rapeseed oils, crustaceans, frozen fish, and meat. Russia is also seeking China’s approval for its winter wheat, a major agricultural export commodity, to access the Chinese market, though negotiations have yet to yield progress.

Minister Lut emphasized the quality of Russian products, stating, “Our products meet the strictest standards of food quality and safety. I am confident they will help diversify China’s food market and meet growing consumer demand.”

Outlook on China-Russia Agricultural Ties

Despite China’s substantial soybean deal with the United States, Russia remains confident in its unique position as a non-GMO soybean supplier. This focus, coupled with broader efforts to expand other agricultural exports and secure market access for key commodities like winter wheat, underscores Russia’s ongoing strategy to strengthen its agricultural trade relationship with China.